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Fixed-term Contracts and the Duration Distribution of Unemployment

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  • Maia Güell

Abstract

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. This paper studies the possible implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectional data drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyze the probability of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction of fixed-term contracts. I found that the difference in the probability of leaving unemployment between the short and long term unemployed increased after this reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that for long spells, the probability of leaving unemployment decreased between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Maia Güell, 2003. "Fixed-term Contracts and the Duration Distribution of Unemployment," Working Papers 105, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:105
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Guell, Maia & Hu, Luojia, 2006. "Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 307-341, July.
    2. Ulku,Hulya & Muzi,Silvia, 2015. "Labor market regulations and outcomes in Sweden : a comparative analysis of recent trends," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7229, The World Bank.
    3. Garrouste, Christelle & Kozovska, Kornelia & Arjona Perez, Elena, 2010. "Education and Long-Term Unemployment," MPRA Paper 25073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sciulli, Dario, 2006. "Making the italian labor market more flexible: an evaluation of the treu reform," UC3M Working papers. Economics we063408, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. cipollone piero & Anita Guelfi, 2003. "tax credit policy and firms' behaviour: the case of subsidy to open-end labour contract in italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 471, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Bukowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr & Koloch, Grzegorz & Baranowska, Anna & Magda, Iga & Szydlowski, Arkadiusz & Bober, Magda & Bieliński, Jacek & Zawistowski, Julian & Sarzalska, Malgorzata, 2008. "Employment in Poland 2007: Security on flexible labour market," MPRA Paper 14284, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Edoardo Di Porto & Leandro Elia & Cristina Tealdi, 2013. "The "emersion" effect: an ex post and ex ante social program evaluation on labor tax evasion in Italy," Working Papers 2/2013, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jun 2013.
    8. Chung, Heejung, 2005. "Different paths towards Flexibility, Deregulated employment protection or temporary employment?," MPRA Paper 2396, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2005.
    9. J. García-Pérez & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2004. "Are Temporary Help Agencies changing mobility patterns in the Spanish labour market?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 43-65, January.
    10. P. Garcia-del-Barrio & L. A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "New revelations about unemployment persistence in Spain: time-series and panel data approaches using regional data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 219-236.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-sectional data; duration model; turnover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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