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Fixed-Term Contracts and the Duration Distribution of Unemployment


  • Maia Güell


In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studies the implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the duration dependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectional data drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyze the chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction of fixed-term contracts. I find that duration dependence has increased since such reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that for long spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased since such reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Maia Güell, 2001. "Fixed-Term Contracts and the Duration Distribution of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0505, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0505

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Garcia Serrano, Carlos, 1999. "Worker Turnover and Job Reallocation: The Role of Fixed-Term Contracts," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 237-237, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guell, Maia & Hu, Luojia, 2006. "Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 307-341, July.
    2. Maciej Bukowski & Grzegorz Koloch & Piotr Lewandowski & Anna Baranowska & Iga Magda & Arkadiusz Szydlowski & Jacek Bielinski & Magdalena Bober & Malgorzata Sarzalska & Julian Zawistowski, 2008. "Employment in Poland 2007. Security on a Flexible Labour Market," Books and Reports published by IBS, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych, number zwp2007 edited by Maciej Bukowski.
    3. J. García-Pérez & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2004. "Are Temporary Help Agencies changing mobility patterns in the Spanish labour market?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 43-65, January.
    4. Edoardo Di Porto & Leandro Elia & Cristina Tealdi, 2013. "The "emersion" effect: an ex post and ex ante social program evaluation on labor tax evasion in Italy," Working Papers 2/2013, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jun 2013.
    5. Sciulli, Dario, 2006. "Making the italian labor market more flexible: an evaluation of the treu reform," UC3M Working papers. Economics we063408, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    6. cipollone piero & Anita Guelfi, 2003. "tax credit policy and firms' behaviour: the case of subsidy to open-end labour contract in italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 471, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Garrouste, Christelle & Kozovska, Kornelia & Arjona Perez, Elena, 2010. "Education and Long-Term Unemployment," MPRA Paper 25073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ulku,Hulya & Muzi,Silvia, 2015. "Labor market regulations and outcomes in Sweden : a comparative analysis of recent trends," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7229, The World Bank.
    9. Chung, Heejung, 2005. "Different paths towards Flexibility, Deregulated employment protection or temporary employment?," MPRA Paper 2396, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2005.

    More about this item


    cross-sectional data; duration model; turnover;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search


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