IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this book chapter

Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations

In: Handbook of Econometrics

  • Van den Berg, Gerard J.

Since the early 1980s, the econometric analysis of duration variables has become widespread. This chapter provides an overview of duration analysis, with an emphasis on the specification and identification of duration models, and with special attention to models for multiple durations. Most of the chapter deals with so-called reduced-form duration models, notably the popular Mixed Proportional Hazard (MPH) model and its multivariate extensions. The MPH model is often used to describe the relation between the empirical exit rate and "background variables[equal, rising dots] in a concise way. However, since the applications usually interpret the results in terms of some economic-theoretical model, we examine to what extent the deep structural parameters of some important theoretical models can be related to reduced-form parameters. We subsequently examine the specification and identification of the MPH model in great detail, we provide intuition on what drives identification, and we infer to what extent biases may occur because of misspecifications. This examination is carried out separately for the case of single-spell data and the case of multi-spell data. We also compare different functional forms for the unobserved heterogeneity distribution.Next, we examine models for multiple durations. In the applied econometric literature on the estimation of multiple-duration models, the range of different models is actually not very large. Typically, the models allow for dependence between the duration variables by way of their unobserved determinants, with each single duration following its own MPH model. In addition to this, the model may allow for an interesting "causal[equal, rising dots] effect of one duration on the other, as motivated by an underlying economic theory. For all these models we examine the conditions for identification. Some of these are intimately linked to particular estimation strategies. The multiple-duration model where the marginal duration distributions each satisfy an MPH specification, and the durations can only be dependent by way of their unobserved determinants, is called the Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard (MMPH) model. For this model, we address the issue of the dimensionality of the heterogeneity distribution and we compare the flexibility of different parametric heterogeneity distributions.On a number of occasions, we incorporate recent insights from the biostatistical literature on duration analysis, and we contrast points of view in this literature to those in the econometric literature. Finally, throughout the chapter, we discuss the importance of the possible collection of additional data.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B7GX7-4DXJCWR-1G/2/50f0060fe9d7ea8fd19278b0df0653d8
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

as
in new window

This chapter was published in:
  • J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 5, January.
  • This item is provided by Elsevier in its series Handbook of Econometrics with number 5-55.
    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecochp:5-55
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookseriesdescription.cws_home/BS_HE/description

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Garcia-Perez, J.I., 1998. "Non-Stationary Job Search with Firing: a Structural Estimation," Papers 9802, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
    3. David Card & Daniel Sullivan, 1987. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements In andOut of Employment," NBER Working Papers 2173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Liliane Bonnal & Denis Fougère & Anne Sérandon, 1997. "Evaluating the Impact of French Employment Policies on Individual Labour Market Histories," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 683-713.
    5. Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Regression Model with an Unknown Transformation of the Dependent Variable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 103-37, January.
    6. Andrew Chesher & Tony Lancaster, 1983. "The Estimation of Models of Labour Market Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 609-624.
    7. Lillard, Lee A., 1993. "Simultaneous equations for hazards : Marriage duration and fertility timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 189-217, March.
    8. Bo E. Honoré, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 241-246.
    9. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
    10. Solon, Gary R, 1985. "Work Incentive Effects of Taxing Unemployment Benefits," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 295-306, March.
    11. Mortensen, Dale T. & Pissarides, Christopher A., 1999. "New developments in models of search in the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 39, pages 2567-2627 Elsevier.
    12. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Fougere, Denis, 1996. "Noncausality in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1195-1212, September.
    13. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
    14. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
    15. Christian Bontemps & Jean-Marc Robin & Gérard J. Van den Berg, 2000. "Equilibrium Search with Continuous Productivity Dispersion: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Post-Print hal-00357755, HAL.
    16. James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber, 1994. "Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Baker, Michael & Melino, Angelo, 2000. "Duration dependence and nonparametric heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 357-393, June.
    18. McCall, Brian P., 1996. "The Identifiability of the Mixed Proportional Hazards Model with Time-Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 733-738, October.
    19. Boizot, Christine & Robin, Jean-Marc & Visser, Michael, 2001. "The Demand for Food Products: An Analysis of Interpurchase Times and Purchased Quantities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 391-419, April.
    20. Enberg, John & Gottschalk, Peter & Wolf, Douglas, 1990. "A random-effects logit model of work-welfare transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 63-75.
    21. Lancaster, Tony, 1983. "Generalised Residuals and Heterogeneous Duration Models: The Exponential Case," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 71-85, November.
    22. Newman, John L & McCulloch, Charles E, 1984. "A Hazard Rate Approach to the Timing of Births," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 939-61, July.
    23. Mroz, T.A. & Weir, D.R., 1988. "Structural Change In Life Cycle Fertility During The Fertility Transition: France Before And After The Revolution," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-13, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    24. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
    25. Geert Ridder, 1990. "The Non-Parametric Identification of Generalized Accelerated Failure-Time Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 167-181.
    26. Ridder, G. & Tunali, I., 1997. "Stratified Partial Likelihood Estimation," Papers 1997/17, Koc University.
    27. Lancaster, Tony, 1985. "Simultaneous equations models in applied search theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 113-126, April.
    28. Heckman, James J, 1991. "Identifying the Hand of the Past: Distinguishing State Dependence from Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 75-79, May.
    29. Tiemen Woutersen, 2000. "Estimators for Panel Duration Data with Endogenous Censoring and Endogenous Regressors," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1581, Econometric Society.
    30. Narendranathan, Wiji, 1993. "Job Search in a Dynamic Environment--An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, January.
    31. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
    32. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    33. James J. Heckman & V. Joseph Hotz & James R. Walker, . "New Evidence on the Timing and Spacing of Births," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 85-1, Chicago - Population Research Center.
    34. Butler, J S & Anderson, Kathryn H & Burkhauser, Richard V, 1989. "Work and Health after Retirement: A Competing Risks Model with Semiparametric Unobserved Heterogeneity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 46-53, February.
    35. Tue Gorgens & Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Censored Regression Model with an Unknown Transformation of the Dependent Variable," Econometrics 9603001, EconWPA.
    36. Audra J. Bowlus & Nicholas M. Kiefer & George R. Neumann, 1997. "Equilibrium Search Models and The Transition from School to Work," Labor and Demography 9705004, EconWPA.
    37. David Lindstrom, 1996. "Economic opportunity in mexico and return migration from the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(3), pages 357-374, August.
    38. Narendranathan, Wiji & Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Modelling the process of job search," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, April.
    39. Gritz, R. Mark, 1993. "The impact of training on the frequency and duration of employment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 21-51.
    40. Rosholm, M., 1997. "The Risk of marginalization in the Labour Market: Application of the Three State Dependent Competing Risks Duration Model," Papers 97-14, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
    41. Butler, J. S. & Anderson, Kathryn H. & Burkhauser, Richard V., 1986. "Testing the relationship between work and health : A bivariate hazard model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 383-386.
    42. James J. Heckman & Christopher J. Flinn, 1982. "New Methods for Analyzing Structural Models of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    44. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Joel L. Horowitz, 1999. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Proportional Hazard Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1001-1028, September.
    46. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
    47. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    48. Christian Bontemps & Jean-Marc Robin & Gérard J. Van den Berg, 1999. "An Empirical Equilibrium Job Search Model With Search on the Job and Heterogeneous Workers and Firms," Post-Print hal-00357757, HAL.
    49. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," NBER Working Papers 0979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. J. Heckman & B. Singer, 1984. "The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241.
    51. Thomas, Jonathan M, 1998. "The Role of Selective Job Search in UK Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 646-64, May.
    52. Melino, Angelo & Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1990. "A simple approach to the identifiability of the proportional hazards model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 63-68, May.
    53. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    54. Cristino R. Arroyo & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 23-65.
    55. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    56. Lindeboom, M. & Van Der Berg, G.J., 1991. "Heterogeneity in Models for Bivariate Survival : the Importance of the Mixing Distribution," Papers 430, Groningen State, Institute of Economic Research-.
    57. Kennan, John, 1985. "The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 5-28, April.
    58. Ryu, Keunkwan, 1993. "Structural duration analysis of management data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 91-115.
    59. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
    60. Costas Meghir & E. Whitehouse, 1995. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    61. Ham, John C & Rea, Samuel A, Jr, 1987. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 325-53, July.
    62. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August.
    63. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier.
    64. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. Curtis Eberwein & John C. Ham & Robert J. Lalonde, 1997. "The Impact of Being Offered and Receiving Classroom Training on the Employment Histories of Disadvantaged Women: Evidence from Experimental Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 655-682.
    66. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Berg & Jan C. Ours, 2005. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions on the Transition Rate from Unemployment to Employment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 602-630, 07.
    67. Omori, Yoshiaki, 1997. "Stigma Effects of Nonemployment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 394-416, April.
    68. Lee Lillard & Constantijn Panis, 1996. "Marital status and mortality: The role of health," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(3), pages 313-327, August.
    69. Jinyong Hahn, 1994. "The Efficiency Bound of the Mixed Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 607-629.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecochp:5-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.