IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jlabec/v14y1996i1p100-125.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence

Author

Listed:
  • van den Berg, Gerard J
  • van Ours, Jan C

Abstract

A major issue in the analysis of unemployment durations concerns distinguishing genuine duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment from unobserved heterogeneity. The authors present a method for the nonparametric estimation of both phenomena, designed to be applicable to time-series data on aggregate outflows from different duration classes. The model explicitly takes into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle and by seasonal effects. The method is applied to U.S. data. The authors find diverging duration effects among black and white individuals. However, except for white males, duration dependence is dominated by unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:14:y:1996:i:1:p:100-125
    DOI: 10.1086/209805
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/209805
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. See http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JOLE for details.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/209805?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    3. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
    4. McCall, Brian P., 1994. "Specification diagnostics for duration models : A martingale approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 293-312.
    5. Devine, Theresa J. & Kiefer, Nicolas M., 1991. "Empirical Labor Economics: The Search Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195059366.
    6. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    7. Gerard J. van den Berg, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 255-277.
    8. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-321, March.
    9. van Ours, J. C., 1992. "Duration dependency and unobserved heterogeneity in unemployment time series (economics letters 38, no. 2, pp. 199-206)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 375-375, July.
    10. Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-557, November.
    11. Ours, J. C. van, 1992. "Duration dependency and unobserved heterogeneity in unemployment time series : An empirical analysis for the Netherlands," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-206, February.
    12. Melino, Angelo & Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1990. "A simple approach to the identifiability of the proportional hazards model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 63-68, May.
    13. Vishwanath, Tara, 1989. "Job Search, Stigma Effect, and Escape Rate from Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 487-502, October.
    14. Sider, Hal, 1985. "Unemployment Duration and Incidence: 1968-82," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 461-472, June.
    15. Elazar Berkovitch, 1990. "A Stigma Theory of Unemployment Duration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Yoram Weiss & Gideon Fishelson (ed.), Advances in the Theory and Measurement of Unemployment, chapter 2, pages 20-56, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. N/A, 1986. "Statistical Appendix," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 115(1), pages 103-114, February.
    17. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
    18. van Ours, J.C., 1992. "Duration dependency and unobserved heterogeneity in unemployment time series," Other publications TiSEM ccc6516f-6bf2-4bae-86b4-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1785-1824, December.
    2. J. Ignacio García Pérez, 2001. "Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation," Economics Working Papers 556, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. José Ignacio García Pérez, 2003. "Non-stationary Job Search When Jobs Do Not Last Forever: A Structural Estimation to Evaluate Alternative Unemployment Insurance Systems," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/49, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    4. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    5. José Ignacio García Pérez & Fernando Múñoz Bullón, 2001. "The Nineties in Spain: so much Flexibility in the Labor Market?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2001/01, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    6. Namkee Ahn & José Ignacio García-Pérez, 2002. "Unemployment duration and workers' wage aspirations in Spain," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 103-118.
    7. J. Ignacio García‐Pérez, 2006. "Job separation in a non‐stationary search model: a structural estimation to evaluate alternative unemployment insurance systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 245-272, March.
    8. Turon, Hélène, 2003. "Separability of Duration Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 754, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. George Neumann, 1996. "Search Models and Duration Data," Econometrics 9602008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 1996.
    10. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    11. van den Berg, Gerard J. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2001. "Combining micro and macro unemployment duration data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 271-309, June.
    12. Røed, Knut & Jensen, Peter & Thoursie, Anna, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Incentives and Institutions - A Micro-Econometric Analysis Based on Scandinavian Data," Working Paper Series 3/2002, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    13. Hoyt Bleakley & Ann E. Ferris & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "New data on worker flows during business cycles," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 49-76.
    14. Gerard J. Van Den Berg & Gijsbert Van Lomwel & Jan C. Van Ours, 2003. "Unemployment Dynamics and Age," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 70, pages 1-29.
    15. Berg, Gerard J. van den & Lomwel, A. Gijsbert C. van & Ours, Jan C. van, 1998. "Unemployment dynamics and age," Serie Research Memoranda 0048, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    16. Ochsen, Carsten, 2008. "How the distribution of unemployment by duration affects the unemployment rate," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 88, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    17. Hie Joo Ahn, 2016. "The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 25 Mar 2022.
    18. García-Pérez, J. Ignacio & Muñoz-Bullón, Fernando, 2003. "The nineties in Spain: too much flexibility in the youth labour market?," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb030302, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    19. J. García-Pérez & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2004. "Are Temporary Help Agencies changing mobility patterns in the Spanish labour market?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 43-65, January.
    20. Berg, Gerard J. van den & Klaauw, Bas van der, 1998. "Combining micro and macro unemployment data," Serie Research Memoranda 0041, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:14:y:1996:i:1:p:100-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JOLE .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JOLE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.