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Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence

  • Berg, G.J.

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Ours, J.C.

A major issue in the analysis of unemployment durations concerns distinguishing genuine duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment from unobserved heterogeneity. The authors present a method for the nonparametric estimation of both phenomena, designed to be applicable to time-series data on aggregate outflows from different duration classes. The model explicitly takes into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle and by seasonal effects. The method is applied to U.S. data. The authors find diverging duration effects among black and white individuals. However, except for white males, duration dependence is dominated by unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

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File URL: http://degree.ubvu.vu.nl/repec/vua/wpaper/pdf/19930022.pdf
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Paper provided by VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics in its series Serie Research Memoranda with number 0022.

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Date of creation: 1993
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Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:1993-22
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