Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence
A major issue in the analysis of unemployment durations concerns distinguishing genuine duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment from unobserved heterogeneity. The authors present a method for the nonparametric estimation of both phenomena, designed to be applicable to time-series data on aggregate outflows from different duration classes. The model explicitly takes into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle and by seasonal effects. The method is applied to U.S. data. The authors find diverging duration effects among black and white individuals. However, except for white males, duration dependence is dominated by unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.
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|Date of creation:||1993|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.feweb.vu.nl|
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- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
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- McCall, Brian P., 1994. "Specification diagnostics for duration models : A martingale approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 293-312.
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- Sider, Hal, 1985. "Unemployment Duration and Incidence: 1968-82," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 461-472, June.
- Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
- van Ours, J.C., 1992. "Duration dependency and unobserved heterogeneity in unemployment time series," Other publications TiSEM ccc6516f-6bf2-4bae-86b4-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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