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Estimation of the Duration Model by Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Penalized Likelihood, and Probability Simulators

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  • Huh, Keun
  • Sickles, Robin C

Abstract

Failure to properly treat heterogeneity components in longitudinal analyses can result in an incorrect parametrization of the duration model. Estimation bias is not limited to duration dependence but also extends to the structural parameters. This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to examine the finite sample behavior of three estimators for this problem: nonparametric maximum likelihood, maximum penalized likelihood, and the probability simulator. The authors' results on the estimators' finite sample behavior for this class of model add to limited experimental evidence. They highlight the estimators' computational feasibility and point to their relative strengths in empirical duration modeling. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

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  • Huh, Keun & Sickles, Robin C, 1994. "Estimation of the Duration Model by Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Penalized Likelihood, and Probability Simulators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 683-694, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:76:y:1994:i:4:p:683-94
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 370, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2010. "The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 1-13, November.
    3. Li, Xianghong & Smith, Barry, 2015. "Diagnostic analysis and computational strategies for estimating discrete time duration models—A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 275-292.
    4. Lombardi, Stefano & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Vikström, Johan, 2020. "Empirical Monte Carlo evidence on estimation of Timing-of-Events models," Working Paper Series 2020:26, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy, revised 05 Jan 2021.
    5. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
    6. George Neumann, 1996. "Search Models and Duration Data," Econometrics 9602008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 1996.
    7. Carrasco, Raquel & García-Pérez, J. Ignacio, 2012. "Economic Conditions and Employment Dynamics of Immigrants versus Natives: Who Pays the Costs of the "Great Recession"?," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1232, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    8. Zhang, Tao, 2003. "A Monte Carlo study on non-parametric estimation of duration models with unobserved heterogeneity," Memorandum 25/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    9. Bloemen, H.G. & Kalwij, A.S., 1996. "Female Employment and Timing of Births Decisions : A Multiple State Transition Model," Discussion Paper 1996-26, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Sickles, Robin C. & Williams, Jenny, 2008. "Turning from crime: A dynamic perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 158-173, July.
    12. Xiaohong Chen & James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2000. "Identification and SQRT N Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Panel Data Models with Binary Dependent Variables and a Latent Factor," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1567, Econometric Society.
    13. Raquel Carrasco & José Ignacio García Pérez, 2010. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multi-Spell Discrete Time Duration Models," Working Papers 10.11, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    14. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
    15. Baker, Michael & Melino, Angelo, 2000. "Duration dependence and nonparametric heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 357-393, June.
    16. Bloemen, Hans & Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Female labor market transitions and the timing of births: a simultaneous analysis of the effects of schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 593-620, December.
    17. von Haefen, Roger H. & Phaneuf, Daniel J., 2003. "Estimating preferences for outdoor recreation:: a comparison of continuous and count data demand system frameworks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 612-630, May.
    18. Adriaan S. Kalwij, 2004. "Unemployment Experiences of Young Men: on the Road to Stable Employment?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 205-237, May.

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