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Turning from Crime: A Dynamic Perspective

  • Robin C. Sickles
  • Jenny Williams

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

This paper presents a dynamic model of criminal choice in which an offender's probability of arrest depends on his level of criminal activity as well as the actions of the criminal justice system. In addition, current choices affect future outcomes through a stock accumulation process. We introduce social capital stock into the preference structure to represent the flow of services associated with a good reputation and social acceptance. Social capital is used to account for the influence of social norms on the crime decision by assuming that the stigmatism associated with arrest depreciates an individual's social capital stock. Euler equations exclusive of the value function cannot be obtained from the first-order conditions of our dynamic model since the probability of arrest depends on the individual's own actions. This becomes an issue for estimation because the value function is not specified completely by parameterizing the utility function. We overcome this issue using a nested fixed-point algorithm within the estimation procedure to numerically approximate the value function.

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File URL: http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/research/papers/doc/wp1999-08.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Adelaide, School of Economics in its series School of Economics Working Papers with number 1999-08.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics, 2008, vol. 145, issues 1-2, pp. 158-173
Handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:1999-08
Contact details of provider: Postal: Adelaide SA 5005
Phone: (618) 8303 5540
Web page: http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/

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  1. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  2. Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
  3. Imai, Susumu & Krishna, Kala, 2001. "Employment, Dynamic Deterrence and Crime," Working Papers 1-01-2, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  5. Grogger, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Effect of Arrests on the Employment and Earnings of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 51-71, February.
  6. Kenneth Burdett & Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2003. "Crime, Inequality, and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1764-1777, December.
  7. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-91, October.
  8. Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 1989. "Continuously distributed attributes and measures of multivariate inequality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 131-144, September.
  9. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Merlo, Antonio & Rupert, Peter, 1996. "On the political economy of income redistribution and crime," Bulletins 7497, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
  10. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
  11. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
  12. Manuel S. Santos & Juan Pablo Rincon-Zapatero, 2007. "Moving the Goalposts: Differentiability of the Value Function without Interiority Assumptions," Working Papers 0614, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
  13. Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 1986. "The Measurement and Decomposition of Multi-dimensional Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 991-97, July.
  14. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Juan Pablo Rincon-Zapatero & Manuel S. Santos, 2007. "Differentiability of the value function without interiority assumptions," Economics Working Papers we071405, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  16. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2002. "Simulation-Based Method of Moments and Efficiency," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 482-92, October.
  17. Huh, Keun & Sickles, Robin C, 1994. "Estimation of the Duration Model by Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Penalized Likelihood, and Probability Simulators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 683-94, November.
  18. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  19. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  20. Lance Lochner, 2004. "Education, Work, And Crime: A Human Capital Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 811-843, 08.
  21. Jenny Williams & Robin C. Sickles, 1998. "Intertemporal Model of Rational Criminal Choice," School of Economics Working Papers 1998-03, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  22. Akerlof, George A, 1998. "Men without Children," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 287-309, March.
  23. George A. Akerlof, 1997. "Social Distance and Social Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1005-1028, September.
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