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Smoking, Expectations, and Health: A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Lifetime Smoking Behavior

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  • Michael Darden

    () (Department of Economics, Tulane University)

Abstract

This research discusses results obtained through formulation and estimation of a dynamic stochastic model that captures individual smoking decision making, health expectations, and longevity over the life cycle. The standard rational addiction model is augmented with a Bayesian learning process about the health marker transition technology to evaluate the importance of personalized health information in the decision to smoke cigarettes. Additionally, the model is well positioned to assess how smoking, and smoking cessation, impacts morbidity and mortality outcomes while taking into consideration the potential for dynamic selection of smoking behaviors. The structural parameters are estimated using rich longitudinal health and smoking data from the Framingham Heart Study: Offspring Cohort. Results suggest that there exists heterogeneity across individuals in the pathways by which smoking effects health. Furthermore, upon smoking, the estimated parameters suggest a positive reinforcement effect and a negative withdrawal effect, both of which encourage future smoking. The paper also presents evidence of health selection in smoking behavior that, when not modeled, may cause an overstatement of the effect of smoking on morbidity and mortality. Finally, personalized health marker information is not found to significantly influence smoking behavior relative to chronic health shocks themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Darden, 2012. "Smoking, Expectations, and Health: A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Lifetime Smoking Behavior," Working Papers 1204, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tul:wpaper:1204
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Sam Watson’s journal round-up for 2nd October 2017
      by Sam Watson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2017-10-02 16:00:42

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    Cited by:

    1. Itzik Fadlon & Torben Heien Nielsen, 2019. "Family Health Behaviors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3162-3191, September.
    2. Harris, Matthew C. & Kessler, Lawrence M., 2019. "Habit formation and activity persistence: Evidence from gym equipment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 688-708.
    3. Friedson, Andrew I. & Rees, Daniel I., 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run," IZA Discussion Papers 13252, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Donald S. Kenkel & Alan D. Mathios & Hua Wang, 2020. "E-Cigarettes and Respiratory Disease: A Replication, Extension, and Future Directions," NBER Working Papers 27507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jialie Chen & Vithala R. Rao, 2020. "A Dynamic Model of Rational Addiction with Stockpiling and Learning: An Empirical Examination of E-cigarettes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5886-5905, December.
    6. Michael Darden & Donna Gilleskie, 2016. "The Effects of Parental Health Shocks on Adult Offspring Smoking Behavior and Self‐Assessed Health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 939-954, August.
    7. Arni, Patrick & Dragone, Davide & Goette, Lorenz & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2021. "Biased health perceptions and risky health behaviors—Theory and evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Ali Palali & Jan C. Ours, 2019. "The impact of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(9), pages 1287-1301, December.
    9. Andrew M. Jones & Audrey Laporte & Nigel Rice & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2019. "Dynamic panel data estimation of an integrated Grossman and Becker–Murphy model of health and addiction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 703-733, February.
    10. Andrew Jones & Audrey Laporte & Nigel Rice & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2014. "A Synthesis of the Grossman and Becker-Murphy Models of Health and Addiction: Theoretical and Empirical Implications," Working Papers 140007, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    smoking; information; learning; structural econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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