When to Quit Under Uncertainty? A real options approach to smoking cessation
This paper models the decision to quit smoking like an investment decision where the quitter incurs a sunk withdrawal cost today and forgoes their consumer surplus from cigarettes (invests) and hopes to reap an uncertain reward of better health and therefore higher utility in the future (return). We show that a risk-averse mature smoker who expects to benefit from quitting may still rationally choose to delay quitting until they are more confident that quitting is the right decision for them. Such a decision by the smoker is due to the value associated with keeping their option of whether or not to quit open as they learn more about the damage that smoking will have on their future utility. Policies which reduce a smoker’s uncertainty about the damage that smoking with have on their future utility is likely to make them quit earlier.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dundee, DD1 4HN|
Phone: (01382) 344375
Fax: (01382) 344691
Web page: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/econman/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chee-Ruey Hsieh, 1998. "Health risk and the decision to quit smoking," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 795-804.
- Jones, Andrew M., 1999. "Adjustment costs, withdrawal effects, and cigarette addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 125-137, January.
- Frank A. Sloan & Jan Ostermann & Christopher Conover & Donald H. Taylor, Jr. & Gabriel Picone, 2006. "The Price of Smoking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693453, July.
- Peter Arcidiacono & Holger Sieg & Frank Sloan, 2007.
"Living Rationally Under The Volcano? An Empirical Analysis Of Heavy Drinking And Smoking,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 37-65, 02.
- Peter Arcidiacono & Holger Sieg & Frank Sloan, "undated". "Living Rationally Under the Volcano? An Empirical Analysis of Heavy Drinking and Smoking," GSIA Working Papers 2003-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Peter Arcidiacono & Holger Sieg & Frank Sloan, 2001. "Living Rationally Under the Volcano? An Empirical Analysis of Heavy Drinking and Smoking," NBER Working Papers 8602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arcidiacono, Peter & Sieg, Holger & Sloan, Frank, 2002. "Living Rationally Under the Volcano? An Empirical Analysis of Heavy Drinking and Smoking," Working Papers 02-30, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Matthew Rabin & Ted O'Donoghue, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
- Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 1996. "Doing It Now or Later," Discussion Papers 1172, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 1997. "Doing It Now or Later," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7t44m5b0, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Ted O'Donoghue and Matthew Rabin ., 1997. "Doing It Now or Later," Economics Working Papers 97-253, University of California at Berkeley.
- Clark, Andrew & Etile, Fabrice, 2002. "Do health changes affect smoking? Evidence from British panel data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 533-562, July.
- Andrew Clark & Fabrice Etilé, 2001. "Do Health Changes Affect Smoking? Evidence from British Panel Data," DELTA Working Papers 2001-16, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan & F. Reed Johnson & William H. Desvousges, 2001. "Do Smokers Respond To Health Shocks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 675-687, November.
- Smith, V. Kerry & Taylor, Donald H., Jr. & Sloan, Frank A. & Johnson, F. Reed & Desvousges, William H., 2000. "Do Smokers Respond to Health Shocks?," Working Papers 00-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Clark & Fabrice Etilé, 2003. "Health Changes and Smoking: An Economic Analysis," DELTA Working Papers 2003-13, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Andrew E. Clark & Fabrice Etilé, 2006. "Health Changes and Smoking: An Economic Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00754646, HAL.
- Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1986. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 41, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Suranovic, Steven M. & Goldfarb, Robert S. & Leonard, Thomas C., 1999. "An economic theory of cigarette addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, January.
- Barnes Michael G & Smith Trenton G., 2009. "Tobacco Use as Response to Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, November.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Zervos, David, 1995. "Rational Addiction with Learning and Regret," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 739-758, August.
- Athanasios Orphanides & David Zervos, 1992. "Rational addiction with learning and regret," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 216, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gruber, Jonathan & Koszegi, Botond, 2004. "Tax incidence when individuals are time-inconsistent: the case of cigarette excise taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1959-1987, August.
- Leonie Sundmacher, 2012. "The effect of health shocks on smoking and obesity," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 13(4), pages 451-460, August.
- Jonathan Gruber & Botond Köszegi, 2001. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1261-1303.
- Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
- Wang Ruqu, 2007. "The Optimal Consumption and the Quitting of Harmful Addictive Goods," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, February.
- Ruqu Wang, 2000. "The Optimal Consumption and the Quitting of Harmful Addictive Goods," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1122, Econometric Society.
- Khwaja, Ahmed & Silverman, Dan & Sloan, Frank & Wang, Yang, 2007. "Smoking, wealth accumulation and the propensity to plan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 96-103, January.
- Mark Coppejans & Donna Gilleskie & Holger Sieg & Koleman Strumpf, 2007. "Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 510-521, August.
- Carbone, Jared C. & Kverndokk, Snorre & Rogeberg, Ole Jorgen, 2005. "Smoking, health, risk, and perception," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 631-653, July.
- Gustav Kjellsson & Ulf‐G Gerdtham & Carl Hampus Lyttkens, 2011. "Breaking bad habits by education – smoking dynamics among Swedish women," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 876-881, July.
- Khwaja, Ahmed & Sloan, Frank & Chung, Sukyung, 2006. "Learning about individual risk and the decision to smoke," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 683-699, July.
- Khwaja, Ahmed & Silverman, Dan & Sloan, Frank, 2007. "Time preference, time discounting, and smoking decisions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 927-949, September.
- Ahmed Khwaja & Dan Silverman & Frank Sloan, 2006. "Time Preference, Time Discounting, and Smoking Decisions," NBER Working Papers 12615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrzej Kwiatkowski)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.