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Habits, Complementarities and Heterogeneity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: A Multivariate Dynamic Model

  • David Aristei
  • Luca Pieroni

In this paper we test the existence of forward-looking behaviour in a multivariate model for alcohol and tobacco consumption. The theoretical framework, based on a dynamic adjustment cost model with forward-looking behaviour, is enhanced to include the intertemporal interactions between the two goods. The analysis of the within-period preferences completes the intertemporal model, allowing to evaluate the static substitutability/complementarity relationships. The empirical strategy consists in a two-step estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain the parameters of the demand system, while in a second stage Euler equations are estimated. Results, based on a cohort data set constructed from a series of cross-sections of the Italian Household Budget Survey, reveal a significant complementarity relationship between alcohol and tobacco. Estimation of the Euler equations does not lead to rejection of the hypothesis of intertemporal dependence, providing evidence for a forward-looking behaviour in alcohol and tobacco consumption. Moreover, we find significant intertemporal interactions that support the adjustment cost setting in a multivariate model with rational expectations. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2010.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00590.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 72 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 428-457

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:72:y:2010:i:4:p:428-457
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  1. Luca Fanelli, 2006. "Dynamic adjustment cost models with forward-looking behaviour," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 23-47, 03.
  2. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Growth and Saving Among Individuals and Households," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 212-225, May.
  3. Weissenberger, Edgar, 1986. "An intertemporal system of dynamic consumer demand functions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 859-891, August.
  4. Gardes, Francois & Duncan, Greg J. & Gaubert, Patrice & Gurgand, Marc & Starzec, Christophe, 2005. "Panel and Pseudo-Panel Estimation of Cross-Sectional and Time Series Elasticities of Food Consumption: The Case of U.S. and Polish Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 242-253, April.
  5. Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 1997. "Letter: Economic modelling of the gateway effect," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(5), pages 521-524.
  6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  7. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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