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Smoking Cessation: A Model of Planned vs. Actual Behavior for Time-Inconsistent Consumers

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  • Fernando S. Machado

    (Faculdade de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Rajiv K. Sinha

    (Department of Marketing, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287)

Abstract

We offer a simple model of intertemporal choice to characterize how planned versus actual behaviors evolve for time-inconsistent smokers. Our results suggest that smokers' participation and cessation decisions are governed by the interplay between three effects. The leads smokers to advance their plans to quit smoking, whereas the leads them to consecutively revise their planned quitting age upwards. Consequently, the duration of smoking is effectively governed by which one of these two effects is dominant. Finally, for certain consumer segments, a causes an “all or nothing” type of extreme smoking behavior based on certain critical values of present-biased preferences. Our results provide some preliminary evidence that both marketing efforts by tobacco firms and public policy initiatives can have a significant influence on smoking behavior. In particular, we find that reductions in the age at which individuals start smoking may not only vastly extend their duration of smoking, but also convert potential “never smokers” into lifetime smokers. Finally, we estimate a hazard model using survey data from over 800 smokers to provide evidence in support of our theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando S. Machado & Rajiv K. Sinha, 2007. "Smoking Cessation: A Model of Planned vs. Actual Behavior for Time-Inconsistent Consumers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 834-850, 11-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:26:y:2007:i:6:p:834-850
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1070.0298
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Mezza, Alvaro & Buchinsky, Moshe, 2021. "Illegal drugs, education, and labor market outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 454-484.
    5. Bertrand Crettez & Régis Deloche, 2021. "Time-inconsistent preferences and the minimum legal tobacco consuming age," Rationality and Society, , vol. 33(2), pages 176-195, May.
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    8. Brett R. Gordon & Baohong Sun, 2015. "A Dynamic Model of Rational Addiction: Evaluating Cigarette Taxes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 452-470, May.
    9. Bryan Bollinger & Steven E. Sexton, 2023. "Local excise taxes, sticky prices, and spillovers: evidence from Berkeley’s soda tax," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 281-331, June.
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