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The Flow into Unemployment in Britain


  • Burgess, Simon M


This paper examines a largely neglected aspect of unemployment dynamics, namely the flow into unemployment. A model is set up relating this to the demand for labor and the quit rate. The empirical results lend considerable support to the model: a fall in planned employment growth or a fall in the quit rate both raise the inflow rate. The implications of the results for unemployment-vacancy analysis are discussed, and the distinction made between symmetric and asymmetric shocks to the matching function. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Burgess, Simon M, 1992. "The Flow into Unemployment in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 888-895, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:102:y:1992:i:413:p:888-95

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
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    3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1991. "Should the fed smooth interest rates? the case of seasonal monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 41-69, January.
    4. Plosser, Charles I., 1979. "The analysis of seasonal economic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 147-163, June.
    5. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1989. "Production, sales, and the change in inventories : An identity that doesn't add up," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-51, July.
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    7. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, July.
    8. Kahn, J.A., 1990. "The Seasonal And Cyclical Behavior Of Inventories," RCER Working Papers 223, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    9. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June.
    10. Mankiw, N Gregory & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Money Demand and the Effects of Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 415-429, November.
    11. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-534, June.
    12. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-581, June.
    13. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    14. West, Kenneth D., 1990. "Evidence from seven countries on whether inventories smooth aggregate output," Engineering Costs and Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-3), pages 85-90, May.
    15. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-864, September.
    16. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-656.
    17. Danny Quah & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "A Common Error in the Treatment of Trending Time Series," Working papers 483, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    20. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    21. repec:fth:harver:1531 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce C. Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2001. "The importance of employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 370, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Hélène, 2000. "Unemployment Dynamics, Duration and Equilibrium: Evidence from Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bruce C. Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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