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Determinants of Lifetime Unemployment - A Micro Data Analysis with Censored Quantile Regressions

  • Achim Schmillen

    ()

    (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies))

  • Joachim Möller

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB))

Building on a large administrative micro data set for the time span 1975 - 2004 we look at lifetime unemployment for West German birth cohorts 1950 to 1954. Descriptive evidence shows a highly uneven distribution of unemployment in West Germany - more than 60% of the individuals in our sample were not unemployed for a single day over the better part of their professional career while almost half of the total amount of unemployment fell upon 5% of the individuals covered. We employ censored quantile regressions to explain the amount of individual lifetime unemployment. Explanatory variables are either characteristics of the individual (like education), or of the job (like the wage) or the employer (like the size of the firm) early in the professional career. A particular emphasis is placed on the importance of the occupation: we find that for men working in a disadvantageous occupation at age 25 ceteris paribus leads to a signi cantly higher amount of lifetime unemployment. Educational attainment or the wage earned at age 25 are also related to the amount of men's lifetime unemployment, amongst others. Some of these variables show very interesting patterns when looking at di erent quantiles. For women results are in general less clear-cut.

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Paper provided by Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies) in its series Working Papers with number 275.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:275
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  1. Iourii Manovskii & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2004. "Occupational Specificity of Human Capital," 2004 Meeting Papers 197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Working Paper Series 481, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  3. Gustavsen, Geir Waehler & Jolliffe, Dean & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2008. "Censored Quantile Regression and Purchases of Ice Cream," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6534, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Xuan, Zhang & Wilke, Ralf A. & Lüdemann, Elke, 2005. "Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-57 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Kruppe, Thomas & Müller, Eva & Wichert, Laura & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "On the Definition of Unemployment and its Implementation in Register Data: The Case of Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-041, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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  11. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  12. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1994. "Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure 1963-1987: Application of Quantile Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 405-58, March.
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  14. Ludsteck, Johannes & Haupt, Harald, 2007. "An Empirical Test of the Reder Hypothesis," Discussion Papers in Economics 1397, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  15. Jose A. F. Machado & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2008. "Quantiles for Fractions and Other Mixed Data," Economics Discussion Papers 656, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  16. Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Robert Völter, 2006. "Imputation Rules to Improve the Education Variable in the IAB Employment Subsample," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(3), pages 405-436.
  17. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
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