Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment
The empirical literature on unemployment almost exclusively focuses on the duration of distinct unemployment spells. In contrast, we use a unique administrative micro data set for the time span 1975–2004 to investigate individual lifetime unemployment — defined as the cumulative length of all unemployment spells over a 25-year period. This new perspective enables us to answer questions regarding the long-term distribution and determinants of unemployment for birth cohorts 1950–1954. We show that lifetime unemployment is highly concentrated on a small part of the population. With censored quantile regressions we investigate the long-lasting influence of bad luck early in the professional career: Controlling for individual and firm characteristics we find that choosing at a young age what turns out to be an unfavorable occupation significantly increases the predicted amount of lifetime unemployment.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stefan Bender & Till von Wachter, 2006.
"In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1679-1705, December.
- Wachter, Till von & Bender, Stefan, 2004. "In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers," IZA Discussion Papers 1348, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hung-Lin Tao & Chia-Hung Li, 2007. "The impact of sectoral shifts and the aggregate labour market on unemployment duration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 915-926.
- Bernd Fitzenberger & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010.
"Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 336-366, 08.
- Fitzenberger, Bernd & Wilke, Ralf A., 2004. "Unemployment Durations in West-Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System During the 1980s," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-24, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Hong H. & Chernozhukov V., 2002. "Three-Step Censored Quantile Regression and Extramarital Affairs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 872-882, September.
- Roger Koenker, . "Censored Quantile Regression Redux," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i06).
- Iourii Manovskii & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2004.
"Occupational Specificity of Human Capital,"
2004 Meeting Papers
197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Fitzenberger, Bernd & Winker, Peter, 2007. "Improving the computation of censored quantile regressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 88-108, September.
- Elke Lüdemann & Ralf Wilke & Xuan Zhang, 2006.
"Censored quantile regressions and the length of unemployment periods in West Germany,"
Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1003-1024, November.
- Xuan, Zhang & Wilke, Ralf A. & Lüdemann, Elke, 2005. "Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-57 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Lüdemann, Elke & Wilke, Ralf A. & Zhang, Xuan, 2004. "Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-57, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
- Emilia Del Bono & Andrea Weber, 2008.
"Do Wages Compensate for Anticipated Working Time Restrictions? Evidence from Seasonal Employment in Austria,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 26, pages 181-221.
- Del Bono, Emilia & Weber, Andrea, 2006. "Do wages compensate for anticipated working time restrictions? Evidence from seasonal employment in Austria," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-37, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Del Bono, Emilia & Weber, Andrea, 2006. "Do Wages Compensate for Anticipated Working Time Restrictions? Evidence from Seasonal Employment in Austria," IZA Discussion Papers 2242, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Adriaan S. Kalwij, 2004. "Unemployment Experiences of Young Men: on the Road to Stable Employment?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 205-237, 05.
- Gustavsen, Geir Waehler & Jolliffe, Dean & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2008. "Censored Quantile Regression and Purchases of Ice Cream," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6534, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
- Yannis Bilias & Roger Koenker, 2001. "Quantile regression for duration data: A reappraisal of the Pennsylvania Reemployment Bonus Experiments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 199-220.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1996.
"The European Unemployment Dilemma,"
EUI-RSCAS Working Papers
36, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1995. "The European unemployment dilemma," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 178, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Working Paper Series 481, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Burgess, Simon & Propper, Carol & Rees, Hedley & Shearer, Arran, 2003. "The class of 1981: the effects of early career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-309, June.
- Jose A. F. Machado & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2008. "Quantiles for Fractions and Other Mixed Data," Economics Discussion Papers 656, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
- Jacob Mincer, 1991. "Education and Unemployment of Women," NBER Working Papers 3837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
- Ludsteck, Johannes & Haupt, Harald, 2007. "An Empirical Test of the Reder Hypothesis," Discussion Papers in Economics 1397, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Bande, Roberto & Fernández, Melchor & Montuenga, Víctor, 2008.
"Regional unemployment in Spain: Disparities, business cycle and wage setting,"
Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 885-914, October.
- Roberto Bande & Melchor Fernandez & Victor Montuenga, 2005. "Regional Unemployment in Spain: Disparities, Business Cycle and Wage Setting," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0035, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
- Roberto Bande & Melchor Fernandez & Víctor Manuel Montuenga, 2005. "Regional Unemployment in Spain - Disparities, Business Cycle and Wage Setting," ERSA conference papers ersa05p489, European Regional Science Association.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Buchinsky, Moshe, 1994. "Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure 1963-1987: Application of Quantile Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 405-58, March.
- Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2006. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labor Market Entry Affect Future Employment Prospects?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 193-210, May.
- Jacob Mincer, 1991. "Education and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 3838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:33-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.