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Vocational education, occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career

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  • Achim Schmillen

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career with German administrative linked employer–employee data that track more than 800,000 graduates from vocational education over 25 years. Using short-run fluctuations in local and sectoral occupation-specific labor demand as instruments, it finds that choosing an occupation that later turns out to suffer from low or negative employment growth has a statistically and economically significant impact on unemployment over the professional career. On average, an unanticipated one-standard deviation decrease in occupation-specific employment growth raises unemployment by about 116 days over the life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Achim Schmillen, 2019. "Vocational education, occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 805-838, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1484-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1484-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Occupational choice; Unemployment; Vocational education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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