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Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29

  • Christopher L. Foote
  • Richard W. Ryan

One of the most important long-run trends in the U.S. labor market is polarization, defined as the relative growth of employment in high-skill jobs (such as management and technical positions) and low-skill jobs (such as food-service and janitorial work) amid the concurrent decline in middle-skill jobs (such as clerical, construction, manufacturing, and retail occupations). Middle-skill job losses typically result from outsourcing labor to lower-wage countries or from substituting automated technologies for routine tasks. Economists are now beginning to study how long-run polarization might be related to short-run business cycles, but doing so requires the construction of quarterly datasets with consistent occupational data over long periods of time. The authors of this paper construct a new dataset of occupational employment and unemployment that extends from 1947:Q3 to 2013:Q4. Using this dataset, along with more-recent individual-level data from the Current Population Survey, the authors study how recessions typically affect employment in various occupations, what employment alternatives are available to middle-skill workers who become unemployed, and whether the ongoing erosion of middle-skill job opportunities is related to long-term declines in labor force participation among men.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Jonathan A. Parker & Michael Woodford, 2015. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number park14-1, March.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 13427.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13427
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