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Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle

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  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos
  • Visschers, Ludo

Abstract

This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Visschers, Ludo, 2014. "Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1410, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we1410
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    Cited by:

    1. David Wiczer, 2013. "Long-term Unemployment: Attached and Mismatched?," 2013 Meeting Papers 1101, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Jacob Wong, 2012. "Aggregate Reallocation Shocks and the Dynamics of Occupational Mobility and Wage Inequality," School of Economics Working Papers 2012-04, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    3. Maximiliano Dvorkin, 2013. "Sectoral Shocks, Reallocation and Unemployment in a Model of Competitive Labor Markets," 2013 Meeting Papers 1229, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2015. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 222-249, October.
    5. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & She, Powen & Visschers, Ludo, 2016. "The extent and cyclicality of career changes: Evidence for the U.K," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 18-41.
    6. Axtell, Robert L. & Guerrero, Omar A. & López, Eduardo, 2016. "The Network Composition of Aggregate Unemployment," MPRA Paper 68962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Auray Stéphane & Fuller David & Lkhagvasuren Damba & Terracol Antoine, 2017. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage, Directed Mobility Across Sectors, and Wages," Working Papers 2017-59, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    8. Bauer, Anja, 2016. "Reallocation patterns across occupations in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 111-114.
    9. Herz, Benedikt & van Rens, Thijs, 2015. "Accounting for Mismatch Employment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1061, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Lalé, Etienne, 2017. "Worker reallocation across occupations: Confronting data with theory," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 51-68.
    11. Bauer, Anja, 2013. "Mismatch unemployment : evidence from Germany 2000-2010," IAB Discussion Paper 201310, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & She, Powen & Visschers, Ludo, 2015. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-52, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Guerrieri, Veronica & Julien, Benoit & Kircher, Philipp & Wright, Randall, 2017. "Directed Search: A Guided Tour," CEPR Discussion Papers 12315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Bart Hobijn & Powen She & Ludo Visschers, 2014. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK (first version)," ESE Discussion Papers 246, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    15. Damba Lkhagvasuren & Roy Nitulescu, 2013. "Sectoral Mobility and Unemployment with Heterogeneous Moving Costs," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 339-358, September.
    16. repec:eee:jetheo:v:174:y:2018:i:c:p:184-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Lucas van der Velde, 2017. "Within occupation wage dispersion and the task content of jobs," GRAPE Working Papers 22, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    18. Julien Albertini & Jean Olivier Hairault & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, "undated". "Frictions or deadlocks? Job polarization with search and matching frictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & Visschers, Ludo, 2014. "Career changes decline during recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Ludo Visschers & Ana Millan & Matthias Kredler, 2014. "Great opportunities or poor alternatives: self-employment, unemployment and paid employment over the business cycle," 2014 Meeting Papers 597, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    22. Lucas van der Velde, 2017. "Phasing out: routine tasks and retirement," GRAPE Working Papers 23, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    23. Carillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & She, Powen & Visschers, Ludo, 2014. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-40, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    24. Domenico Ferraro, 2014. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," 2014 Meeting Papers 1104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Bauer, Anja, 2015. "Reallocation patterns across occupations," IAB Discussion Paper 201526, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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