Occupational Mobility and the Business Cycle
Do workers sort more randomly across different job types when jobs are harder to find? To answer this question, we study the mobility of male workers among three-digit occupations in the matched files of the monthly Current Population Survey over the 1979-2004 period. We clean individual occupational transitions using the algorithm proposed by Moscarini and Thomsson (2008). We then construct a synthetic panel comprising annual birth cohorts, and we examine the respective roles of three potential determinants of career mobility: individual ex ante worker characteristics, both observable and unobservable, labor market prospects, and ex post job matching. We provide strong evidence that high unemployment somewhat offsets the role of individual worker considerations in the choice of changing career. Occupational mobility declines with age, family commitments and education, but when unemployment is high these negative effects are weaker, and reversed for college education. The cross-sectional dispersion of the monthly series of residuals is strongly countercyclical. As predicted by Moscarini (2001)'s frictional Roy model, the sorting of workers across occupations is noisier when unemployment is high. As predicted by job-matching theory, worker mobility has significant residual persistence over time. Finally, younger cohorts, among those in the sample for most of their working lives, exhibit increasingly low unexplained career mobility.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Orazio Attanasio & Steven J. Davis, 1994.
"Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
4771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Attanasio, Orazio & Davis, Steven J, 1996. "Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1227-62, December.
- Moscarini, Giuseppe, 2001. "Excess Worker Reallocation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 593-612, July.
- A Gosling & Stephen Machin, 1995.
"The Changing Distribution of Male Wages in the UK,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0271, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Gosling, Amanda & Machin, Stephen & Meghir, Costas, 2000. "The Changing Distribution of Male Wages in the U.K," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 635-66, October.
- Bruce C. Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2001. "The importance of employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Verbeek, M. & Nijman, T., 1990.
"Testing For Selectivity Bias In Panel Data Models,"
9018, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- McCall, Brian P, 1990.
"Occupational Matching: A Test of Sorts,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 45-69, February.
- Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994.
"Search Unemployment with On-the-Job Search,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 457-75, July.
- Iourii Manovskii & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2004.
"Occupational Specificity of Human Capital,"
2004 Meeting Papers
197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
- repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00353892 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Moffitt, Robert, 1988.
"An Estimate Of A Sectoral Model Of Labor Mobility,"
88-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1994.
"High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms,"
NBER Working Papers
4917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1994. "High-Wage Workers and High-Wage Firms," CIRANO Working Papers 94s-23, CIRANO.
- Abowd, J.M. & Kramarz, F. & Margolis, D.N., 1995. "High-Wage Workers and High-Wage Firms," Cahiers de recherche 9503, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Abowd, J.M. & Kramarz, F. & Margolis, D.N., 1995. "High-Wage Workers and High-Wage Firms," Cahiers de recherche 9503, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Neal, Derek, 1999.
"The Complexity of Job Mobility among Young Men,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 237-61, April.
- Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, June.
- MarkMcLaughlin Bils & Kenneth J., 1992.
"Inter-industry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
81, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- McLaughlin, Kenneth J & Bils, Mark, 2001. "Interindustry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 94-135, January.
- Mark Bils & Kenneth J. McLaughlin, 1992. "Inter-Industry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor," NBER Working Papers 4130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Farber, Henry S, 1994. "The Analysis of Interfirm Worker Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 554-93, October.
- Moscarini, Giuseppe & Thomsson, Kaj, 2006. "Occupational and Job Mobility in the US," Working Papers 19, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1992. "Testing for selectivity in panel data models," Other publications TiSEM 7ec34a6c-1d84-4052-971c-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006.
"The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," NBER Working Papers 12167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Haltiwanger, 2000. "Aggregate Growth: What Have We Learned from Microeconomic Evidence?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 267, OECD Publishing.
- Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979.
"Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
- Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Vella, F., 2002.
"Estimating dynamic models from repeated cross-sections,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2002-05, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Verbeek, Marno & Vella, Francis, 2005. "Estimating dynamic models from repeated cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 83-102, July.
- Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
- Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.