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The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K.

Listed author(s):
  • Carlos Carrillo-Tudela

    (University of Essex, CEPR, CESifo and IZA)

  • Bart Hobijn

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Powen She

    (University of Essex)

  • Ludo Visschers

    (University of Edinburgh, Universidad Carlos III and CESifo)

Using quarterly data for the U.K. from 1993 through 2012, we document that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers, when starting a new job, start it in a new occupation or industry (a career change, in the parlance of this paper). Moreover, the proportion of total hires that involves a career change for the worker also drops in recessions. Together with a simultaneous drop in overall turnover, this implies that the number of career changes declines during recessions. These results suggest that recessions are times of subdued occupational and industrial reallocation, and do not reflect, or point to, a large role of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation. We investigate this interpretation further, with evidence on who changes careers, which industries and occupations they come from and go to, and at which wage gains.

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Paper provided by Peruvian Economic Association in its series Working Papers with number 2015-43.

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Date of creation: Apr 2015
Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2015-043
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