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Long-Term Unemployment: Attached and Mismatched?

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  • David Wiczer

Abstract

In this paper, I quantify the contribution of occupation-specific shocks and skills to unemployment duration and its cyclical dynamics. I quantify specific skills using microdata on wages, estimating occupational switching cost as a function of the occupations' difference in skills. The productivity shocks are consistent with job finding rates by occupation. For the period 1995-2013, the model captures 69.5% of long-term unemployment in the data, while a uniform finding rate delivers only 47.2%. In the Great Recession, the model predicts 72.9% of the long-term unemployment that existed in the data whereas a uniform finding rate would predict 57.8%.

Suggested Citation

  • David Wiczer, 2015. "Long-Term Unemployment: Attached and Mismatched?," Working Papers 2015-42, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2015-042
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob Wong, 2017. "Aggregate Reallocation Shocks, Occupational Employment and Distance," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-09, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    2. Benedikt Herz & Thijs van Rens, 2020. "Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1619-1654.
    3. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & She, Powen & Visschers, Ludo, 2016. "The extent and cyclicality of career changes: Evidence for the U.K," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 18-41.
    4. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Bart Hobijn & Powen She & Ludo Visschers, 2014. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK (first version)," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 246, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    5. Ludo Visschers & Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, 2011. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle," 2011 Meeting Papers 1101, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. James D. Eubanks & David Wiczer, 2016. "Duration Dependence and Composition in Unemployment Spells," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(4), pages 263-276.
    7. Simona E. Cociuba & James C. MacGee, 2018. "Demographics and Sectoral Reallocations: A Search Theory with Immobile Workers," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20182, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    8. Dmitry Plotnikov, 2014. "Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2014/077, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante & Alessandro Gavazza, 2014. "What Shifts the Beveridge Curve? Recruitment Effort and Financial Shocks," 2014 Meeting Papers 1014, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. William Hawkins & Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, 2016. "A Stock-Flow Theory of Unemployment with Endogenous Match Formation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ravn, Morten O. & Sterk, Vincent, 2017. "Job uncertainty and deep recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 125-141.
    12. W. Similan Rujiwattanapong, . "Unemployment Insurance and Labour Productivity over the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. William Hawkins & Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, 2014. "A Generalized Model of Stock-Flow Matching," 2014 Meeting Papers 1380, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Maximiliano Dvorkin, 2013. "Sectoral Shocks, Reallocation and Unemployment in a Model of Competitive Labor Markets," 2013 Meeting Papers 1229, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Lalé, Etienne, 2017. "Worker reallocation across occupations: Confronting data with theory," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 51-68.
    16. Ludo Visschers & Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, 2011. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle," 2011 Meeting Papers 1101, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Ludo Visschers & Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, 2011. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle," 2011 Meeting Papers 1101, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Bauer, Anja, 2016. "Reallocation patterns across occupations in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 111-114.
    19. Rujiwattanapong, W. Similan, 2019. "Unemployment dynamics and endogenous unemployment insurance extensions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Visschers, Ludo, 2014. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-35, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Bauer, Anja, 2015. "Reallocation patterns across occupations," IAB Discussion Paper 201526, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    22. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & She, Powen & Visschers, Ludo, 2015. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-52, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Occupational Choice; Human Capital; Unemployment Duration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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