A heteroscedastic extreme value model of intercity travel mode choice
Estimation of disaggregate mode choice models to estimate the ridership share on a proposed new (or improved) intercity travel service and to identify the modes from which existing intercity travelers will be diverted to the new or upgraded service constitutes a critical part of evaluating alternative travel service proposals to alleviate intercity travel congestion. This paper develops a new heteroscedastic extreme value model of intercity mode choice that overcomes the 'independence of irrelevant alternatives' (IIA) property of the commonly used multinomial logit model. The proposed model allows a more flexible cross-elasticity structure among alternatives than the nested logit model. It is also simple, intuitive and much less of a computational burden than the multinomial probit model. The paper discusses the non-IIA property of the heteroscedastic extreme value model and presents an efficient and accurate Gaussian quadrature technique to estimate the heteroscedastic model using the maximum likelihood method. The multinomial logit, alternative nested logit structures, and the heteroscedastic model are estimated to examine the impact of improved rail service on business travel in the Toronto-Montreal corridor. The nested logit structures are either inconsistent with utility maximization principles or are not significantly better than the multinomial logit model. The heteroscedastic extreme value model, however, is found to be superior to the multinomial logit model. The heteroscedastic model predicts smaller increases in rail shares and smaller decreases in non-rail shares than the multinomial logit in response to rail-service improvements. It also suggests a larger percentage decrease in air share and a smaller percentage decrease in auto share than the multinomial logit. Thus, the multinomial logit model is likely to provide overly optimistic projections of rail ridership and revenue, and of alleviation in inter-city travel congestion in general, and highway traffic congestion in particular. These findings point to the limitations of the multinomial logit and nested logit models in studying intercity mode choice behavior and to the usefulness of the heteroscedastic model proposed in this paper.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 29 (1995)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Horowitz, Joel L., 1991. "Reconsidering the multinomial probit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 433-438, December.
- Horowitz, Joel, 1981. "Identification and diagnosis of specification errors in the multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 345-360, October.
- Daly, Andrew, 1987. "Estimating "tree" logit models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 251-267, August.
- Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:29:y:1995:i:6:p:471-483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.