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The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

  • Pierce, Justin R.

    ()

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Schott, Peter K.

    ()

    (Yale School of Management & NBER)

This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the E.U., where there was no change in policy.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2014-4.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-04
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  1. Justin Pierce & Peter Schott, 2009. "A Concordance Between Ten-Digit U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries," Working Papers 09-41, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  2. Amit K. Khandelwal & Peter K. Schott & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2169-95, October.
  3. Girma, Sourafel & Gong, Yundan & Görg, Holger & Yu, Zhihong, 2008. "Can production subsidies explain China's export performance? Evidence from firm level data," Kiel Working Papers 1442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  4. Xue Bai & Kala Krishna & Hong Ma, 2015. "How You Export Matters: Export Mode, Learning and Productivity in China," NBER Working Papers 21164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Jing J. Cai & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha L. Du & Ann A. Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2015. "Industrial policy and competition," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/229424, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Barry T. Hirsch & David A. MacPherson, 2003. "Union Membership and Coverage Database from the Current Population Survey: Note," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(2), pages 349-354, January.
  9. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Wang, Luhang & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 9166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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