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Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Che
  • Yi Lu
  • Justin R. Pierce
  • Peter K. Schott
  • Zhigang Tao

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office during the period examined being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Che & Yi Lu & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Zhigang Tao, 2016. "Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?," NBER Working Papers 22178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22178
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Maria Mayda & Giovanni Peri & Walter Steingress, 2018. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 24510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich & Rodrigo Pinto, 2017. "Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters," CESifo Working Paper Series 6816, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. repec:aea:aejapp:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:158-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da & Marcantonio Junior, Angelo & Castro, Rudi Rocha de, 2018. "Stop suffering! Economic downturns and pentecostal upsurge," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 804, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. repec:ris:integr:0773 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Draca, Mirko & Schwarz, Carlo, 2019. "How Polarized are Citizens? Measuring Ideology from the Ground-Up," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1218, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem, 2018. "The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 538-549.
    8. Laixun Zhao, 2019. "Through Trade Wars, East Asians Finally Learning to Cooperate with Each Other?," Discussion Paper Series DP2019-10, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    9. THORBECKE, Willem, 2016. "China's Electronics Exports, the Renminbi, and Exchange Rates in Supply Chain Countries," Discussion papers 16088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Barbara Dluhosch, 2018. "Trade, Inequality, and Subjective Well-Being: Getting at the Roots of the Backlash Against Globalization," LIS Working papers 741, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    11. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Rodrigo R. Soares & Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 158-195, October.
    12. Matthieu Crozet & Gianluca Orefice, 2017. "Trade and Labor Market: What Do We Know?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-15, CEPII research center.
    13. Lechler, Marie, 2018. "Employment Shocks and anti-EU Sentiment," Discussion Papers in Economics 49414, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    14. Timini, Jacopo & Conesa, Marina, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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