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Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective

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  • Muendler, Marc-Andreas

Abstract

Trade and technological change continually alter the workplace and labor-market outcomes, with consequences for economy-wide welfare and the distribution of real incomes. This report assesses the state of economic research into those areas, with a particular focus on empirical methodologies and their adequacy for an assessment of general-equilibrium outcomes. While difference-in-differences techniques and instrumental- variable approaches provide answers, they exhibit shortcomings that limit conclusiveness. Recent advances in structural estimation of multi-country and multisector models that allow for reallocation frictions in domestic labor markets hold promise to deliver more definite empirical answers. Interestingly, a conclusion from a two-decades old strand of literature seems to be vindicated by conclusions from a related recent literature: roughly one-quarter of changes in labor-market outcomes (wage inequality then and manufacturing job losses now) was predicted by trade integration and roughly one-third by technological change. The remainder of changes in labor-market outcomes remains unaccounted. The report offers candidate explanations, rooted in recent evidence, how interactions between globalization, technological progress, and structural change may account for that remainder.

Suggested Citation

  • Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2017. "Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-15, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201715
    DOI: 10.30875/bda1d9a5-en
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    2. Malgouyres, Clément & Mayer, Thierry & Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément, 2021. "Technology-induced trade shocks? Evidence from broadband expansion in France," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Winkler, Erwin, 2020. "Diverging paths: Labor reallocation, sorting, and wage inequality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224535, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Ariu, Andrea, 2022. "Foreign workers, product quality, and trade: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 47-72, Spring.
    6. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2021. "Adjusting to Globalization in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 263-302.
    7. Rodrigo Adao & Paul E. Carrillo & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Dina Pomeranz, 2020. "International Trade and Earnings Inequality: A New Factor Content Approach," Working Papers 2020-182, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4b7tooefh48jlq7oktt0tbn8om is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Borrs, Linda & Knauth, Florian, 2021. "Trade, technology, and the channels of wage inequality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Josh De Lyon & Swati Dhingra, 2020. "Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-time updates on business performance in the United Kingdom," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-006, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Mertens, Matthias, 2019. "Micro-mechanisms behind declining labour shares: Market power, production processes, and global competition," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 3/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4b7tooefh48jlq7oktt0tbn8om is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.
    14. Ramey, Valerie A, 2019. "Comment," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0sf7011r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    15. Connolly, Laura, 2022. "The effects of a trade shock on gender-specific labor market outcomes in Brazil," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Rui Costa & Swati Dhingra & Stephen Machin, 2022. "New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1890, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hedieh Aghelmaleki & Ronald Bachmann & Joel Stiebale, 2022. "The China Shock, Employment Protection, and European Jobs," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(5), pages 1269-1293, October.
    19. Rodrigo Ad'o & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esp'sito, 2019. "Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Benjamin Jung, 2019. "Elhanan Helpman: Globalization and inequality," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 189-191, July.
    21. Valerie A. Ramey, 2018. "Comment on "The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in US Employment"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33, pages 380-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Lee Branstetter & Ana Venancio & Brian Kovak, 2019. "The China Shock and Portuguese Manufacturing," 2019 Meeting Papers 1051, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Huber, Katrin & Winkler, Erwin, 2019. "All you need is love? Trade shocks, inequality, and risk sharing between partners," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 305-335.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; current account balance; automation; choice of technology; industrial structure and structural change; labor-market outcomes; employment; jobs; wages; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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