IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Credit constraints and growth in a global economy

  • Keyu Jin
  • Stéphane Guibaud
  • Nicolas Coeurdacier

We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints, more severe in fast-growing countries, can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the U.S. and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about 40 percent of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Open access version.
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 35706.

in new window

Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:35706
Contact details of provider: Postal:
LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.

Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Benhima, Kenza, 2013. "A reappraisal of the allocation puzzle through the portfolio approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 331-346.
  2. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An equilibrum model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates," BIS Working Papers 222, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005. "Estimating Life-Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 11163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
  6. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2011. "Why Are Saving Rates so High in China?," NBER Working Papers 16771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jonathan A. Parker, 2000. "Spendthrift in America? On Two Decades of Decline in the U.S. Saving Rate," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 317-387 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
  9. Carroll, Christopher D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Precautionary Reserves, Net Foreign Assets, or Sovereign Wealth Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 7449, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca, 2012. "Reserve Accumulation, Growth and Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," Trinity Economics Papers 200112, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October.
  13. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio & Violante, Giovanni L, 2009. "Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States, 1967-2006," CEPR Discussion Papers 7538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
  15. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
  16. Masao Ogaki & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1078-1098, October.
  17. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Andrew Chesher, 1997. "Diet Revealed?: Semiparametric Estimation of Nutrient Intake-Age Relationships," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 389-428.
  19. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei & Tamim Bayoumi, 2010. "The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle; A Firm-level Cross-country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/275, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
  21. Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark & Chadwick R. Curtis, 2011. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," 2011 Meeting Papers 529, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, 08.
  23. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2012. "Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Saving," NBER Working Papers 18154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
  25. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2010. "Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation," 2010 Meeting Papers 1194, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  26. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
  27. Bacchetta, Philippe & Benhima, Kenza, 2012. "The Demand for Liquid Assets, Corporate Saving, and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 9268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1992. "Saving, Growth and Liquidity Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 662, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
  31. Huggett, Mark & Ventura, Gustavo, 2000. "Understanding why high income households save more than low income households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 361-397, April.
  32. Marcos Chamon & Kai Liu & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China," NBER Working Papers 16565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Damiano Sandri, 2010. "Growth and Capital Flows with Risky Entrepreneurship," IMF Working Papers 10/37, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Growth and Saving Among Individuals and Households," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 212-225, May.
  35. Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti & Zheng Song, 2009. "Growing like China," 2009 Meeting Papers 912, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  36. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate the Predicted Meltdown in Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," NBER Working Papers 8131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Yang, Dennis T., 2012. "Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China," IZA Discussion Papers 6964, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  38. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511 - 564.
  39. Choukhmane, Taha & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Jin, Keyu, 2013. "The One-Child Policy and Household Savings," CEPR Discussion Papers 9688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2013. "Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(3), pages 437 - 492.
  41. F. Thomas Juster & Joseph P. Lupton & James P. Smith & Frank Stafford, 2004. "The decline in household saving and the wealth effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  42. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, 02.
  43. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
  44. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
  45. Andrew Chesher, 1998. "Individual demands from household aggregates: time and age variation in the composition of diet," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 505-524.
  46. Slesnick, Daniel T, 1992. "Aggregate Consumption and Saving in the Postwar United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 585-97, November.
  47. George-Marios Angeletos & Vasia Panousi, 2011. "Financial Integration, Entrepreneurial Risk and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 16761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:35706. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.