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Long-Term Capital Movements

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16

  • Philip R. Lane
  • Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

International financial integration allows countries to become net creditors or net debtors with respect to the rest of the world. In this paper, we show that a small set of fundamentals-shifts in relative output levels, the stock of public debt and demographic factors-can do much to explain the evolution of net foreign asset positions. In addition, we highlight that "external wealth" plays a critical role in determining the behavior of the trade balance, both through shifts in the desired net foreign asset position and the investment returns generated on the outstanding stock of net foreign assets. Finally, we provide some evidence that a portfolio balance effect exists: real interest rate differentials are inversely related to net foreign asset positions.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern02-1, October.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 11064.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11064
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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    7. Masson, Paul R. & Kremers, Jeroen & Horne, Jocelyn, 1994. "Net foreign assets and international adjustment: The United States, Japan and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-40, February.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
    9. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    14. Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1991. "Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer," NBER Historical Working Papers 0032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    17. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations; Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/115, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    19. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    20. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings; Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
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    23. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
    24. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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