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What Drives Long-term Capital Flows? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

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  • Genevieve Verdier

Abstract

What drives capital inflows in the long run? Do they follow the predictions of neoclassical theory, or are other forces at work? The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how long-term capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a simple neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most surprising prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic savings should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that, ceteris paribus, capital should flow to the countries where it is most scarce. Using data on net foreign liabilities over the 1970 to 1997 period, I find evidence that supports these predictions.

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  • Genevieve Verdier, 2003. "What Drives Long-term Capital Flows? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Macroeconomics 0310011, EconWPA, revised 14 Jul 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0310011
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    2. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
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    9. Aharonovitz Gilad D & Miller James D, 2010. "Are Net FDI Flows and Reversals of Capital Flows a Result of Output Growth?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, August.
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    12. Fuhmei Wang, 2009. "The effects of foreign borrowing policies on economic growth: success or failure?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 273-284.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit constraints; net external debt; capital flows; savings; convergence;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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