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External sustainability : a stock equilibrium perspective


  • Calderon, Cesar
  • Loayza, Norman
  • Serven, Luis


The authors consider external sustainability from the perspective of equilibrium in net foreign asset positions. Under their approach, an external situation is sustainable if it is consistent with international and domestic investors'achieving their desired portfolio allocation across countries. They develop a reduced-form model of net foreign asset positions whose long-run equilibrium condition expresses the ratio of net foreign assets to the total wealth of domestic residents as a negative function of investment returns in the country relative to the rest of the world, a positive function of investment risk, and an inverse function of the ratio of foreign-owned to domestically owned wealth. To estimate this equilibrium condition, the authors use a newly constructed data set of foreign asset and liability stocks for a large group of industrial and developing countries, from the 1960s to the present. They also develop summary measures of country returns and risks. Their econometric methodology is an application of the Pooled Mean Group estimator recently developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), which allows for unrestricted cross-country heterogeneity in short-term dynamics while imposing a common long-run specification. The estimation results lend considerable support to the model, especially when applied to countries with low capital controls or high or upper-middle income. The results for countries with high capital controls and, especially, lower-income countries are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model. As a by-product of the model's estimation, the authors obtain estimates of the long-run equilibrium ratios of net foreign assets to wealth, conditional on the observed values of the country's relative returns, risks, and wealth. Then, for a selected group of industrial and developing countries, they evaluate the extent to which actual ratios diverge from their long-run counterparts - and hence the sustainability of current net foreign asset positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2000. "External sustainability : a stock equilibrium perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2281, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2281

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
    3. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Avinash Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck & Sigbjorn Sodal, 1997. "A Markup Interpretation of Optimal Rules for Irreversible Investment," NBER Working Papers 5971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    6. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, June.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    8. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 61-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters,in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-380, December.
    11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    12. Milesi-Ferreti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current account sustainability," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34294, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    14. Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1992. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 175-189, April-Jun.
    15. Easterly, William*Kraay, Aart, 1999. "Small states, small problems?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2139, The World Bank.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    17. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    18. Razin, A., 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. César A. Calderón, 2004. "Real exchange rates in the long and short run: a panel co-integration approach," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 19(2), pages 41-83, December.
    2. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2015. "Testing for external sustainability under a monetary integration process. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 343-349.
    3. Camelia Minoiu & Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Mauritius; A Competitiveness Assessment," IMF Working Papers 08/212, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    5. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
    6. Verdier, Genevieve, 2008. "What drives long-term capital flows A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 120-142, January.


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