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Long-Run Structural Modelling

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  • Pesaran,H.M.
  • Shin,Y.

Abstract

The paper develops a general framework for identification, estimation, and hypothesis testing in cointegrated systems when the cointegrating coefficients are subject to (possibly) non-linear and cross-equation restrictions, obtained from economic theory or other relevant a priori information. It provides a proof of the consistency of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators, establishes the relative rates of convergence of the ML estimators of the short-run and the long-run parameters, and derives their asymptotic distribution; thus generalizing the results already available in the literature for the linear case. The paper also develops tests of the over-identifying (possibly) non-linear restrictions on the cointegrating vectors. The estimation and hypothesis testing procedures are applied to an Almost Ideal Demand System estimated on U.K. quarterly observations. Unlike many other studies of consumer demand this application does not treat relative prices and real per capita expenditures as exogenously given.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Pesaran,H.M. & Shin,Y., 1995. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9419, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9419
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
    2. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, Ron P., 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9811, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    5. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    7. Marcus Chambers & K. Ben Nowman, 1997. "Forecasting with the almost ideal demand system: evidence from some alternative dynamic specifications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 935-943.
    8. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    9. Andrews, Donald W.K., 1992. "Generic Uniform Convergence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 241-257, June.
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    11. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    12. Pashardes, Panos, 1993. "Bias in Estimating the Almost Ideal Demand System with the Stone Index Approximation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 908-915, July.
    13. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1993. "Estimation of Cointegration Vectors with Linear Restrictions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 19-35, January.
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    17. Gordon Anderson & Richard Blundell, 1983. "Testing Restrictions in a Flexible Dynamic Demand System: An Application to Consumers' Expenditure in Canada," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 397-410.
    18. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    20. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1993. "Continuous Weak Convergence and Stochastic Equicontinuity Results for Integrated Processes with an Application to the Estimation of a Regression Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 155-188, April.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    22. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
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    26. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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