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Dynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimation

Author

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  • Guilherme Valle Moura

    (Christian Albrechts Universitaet zu Kiel)

  • Roman Liesenfeld

    (Christian Albrechts Universitaet zu Kiel)

  • Jean-Francois Richard

    (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood evaluation of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use a generic procedure known as Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). Our empirical results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of the probability of current-account reversal. Furthermore we find under all specifications evidence for serially correlated error components and weak evidence for state dependence.
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Suggested Citation

  • Guilherme Valle Moura & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Dynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimation," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807141048250, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807141048250
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    Cited by:

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    3. Luiz de Mello & Pier Carlo Padoan & Linda Rousová, 2012. "Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 489-516, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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