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Determinants and Costs of Current Account Reversals under Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation

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  • Aßmann, Christian

Abstract

Recent empirical evidence suggests that reversing current account balances imply costly adjustment processes leading to reduced economic growth. Using large panel data sets to analyze determinants and costs of reversals asks for controls of heterogeneity among countries. This paper contributes a Bayesian analysis, which allows a parsimonious yet flexible handling of country specific heterogeneity via random coeffcients. Furthermore, the analysis allows for serially correlated errors in order to capture persistence within the employed macroeconomic data. Bayesian specification tests provide evidence in favor of models incorporating heterogeneity and serial correlation. The results suggest that consideration of serial correlation and heterogeneity is necessary to assess correctly the determinants and costs of reversals. Results are checked for robustness against the underlying reversal definition.

Suggested Citation

  • Aßmann, Christian, 2007. "Determinants and Costs of Current Account Reversals under Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation," Economics Working Papers 2007-17, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5683
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    2. Aßmann, Christian & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2009. "A bayesian approach to model-based clustering for panel probit models," Economics Working Papers 2009-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account reversals; Bayesian Analysis; Panel Probit Model; Panel Treatment Model; Random Parameters; Serial Correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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