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Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models

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  • Christian Aßmann

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  • Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2010. "Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 21-43, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:43:y:2010:i:1:p:21-43
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-009-9076-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
    2. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2008. "Systemic Crises and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(1), pages 359-406.
    3. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters,in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, April.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    7. Kano, Takashi, 2008. "A structural VAR approach to the intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 757-779, September.
    8. Alberto Bagnai & Stefano Manzocchi, 1999. "Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 143-163, May.
    9. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    11. Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2006. "Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 553-577, October.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
    14. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    15. Caroline L. Freund, 2000. "Current account adjustment in industrialized countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 692, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2008. "Model-Based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 78-89, January.
    17. Abrego, Lisandro & Ross, Doris C., 2001. "Debt Relief under the HIPC Initiative: Context and Outlook for Debt Sustainability and Resource Flows," WIDER Working Paper Series 096, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 25-37.
    19. Doris C Ross & Lisandro Abrego, 2001. "Debt Relief Under the HIPC Initiative; Context and Outlook for Debt Sustainability and Resource Flow," IMF Working Papers 01/144, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luiz de Mello & Pier Carlo Padoan & Linda Rousová, 2012. "Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 489-516, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account reversals; Markov switching; Determinants and costs of reversals; C31; C33; C35; F32; F34; F43;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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