Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises
In a world of high capital mobility, the threat of speculative attack becomes a central issue of macroeconomicpolicy. While “first-generation” and “second-generation” models of speculative attacks both have considerablerelevance to particular financial crises of the 1990s, a “third-generation” model is needed to make sense of thenumber and nature of the emerging market crises of 1997-98. Most of the recent attempts to produce such amodel have argued that the core of the problem lies in the banking system. This paper sketches another candidatefor third-generation crisis modeling—one that emphasizes two facts that have been omitted from formal modelsto date: the role of companies' balance sheets in determining their ability to invest, and that of capital flows inaffecting the real exchange rate. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999
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Volume (Year): 6 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
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- Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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