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Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals

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Listed author(s):
  • Alberto Bagnai

    ()

  • Stefano Manzocchi

    ()

Abstract

This paper studies episodes of current-account reversal in developing countries (DCs) in the period 1965–1994. First, a number of persistent shifts (“reversals”) in the current-account balance dynamics are identified by structural break and segmented trend tests; then, the relationship between these reversals and a set of fundamentals suggested by the intertemporal approach to the current account is investigated in a panel-data set-up. We find that fundamentals play a different role in episodes of persistent deterioration or improvement of the current-account balance in DCs. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1008365318228
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 143-163

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:10:y:1999:i:2:p:143-163
DOI: 10.1023/A:1008365318228
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/international+economics/journal/11079/PS2

Keywords: current account dynamics; developing countries; unit roots; structural breaks; panel data;

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Manzocchi, Stefano & Martin, Philippe, 1996. "Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:

  1. Ibrahim Erem Sahin & Mehmet Mucuk, 2014. "The Effect of Current Account Deficit on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0301828, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  2. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
  3. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
  4. Alberto Bagnai, 2013. "Unhappy families are all alike: Minskyan cycles, Kaldorian growth, and the Eurozone peripheral crises," a/ Working Papers Series 1301, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  5. Algieri, Bernardina & Bracke, Thierry, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank.
  6. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 2029, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Sergio V. Barone & Ricardo Descalzi & Alberto M. Díaz Cafferata, 2012. "Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(1), pages 123-141, January.
  8. Fernando Pérez de Gracia & Juncal Cuñado, "undated". "Intertemporal Current Account and Productivity Shocks: Evidence for Some European Countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-05, FEDEA.
  9. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
  10. Emine Turkan AYVAZ GUVEN, 2016. "The Cost of Economic Growth in Turkey: Unavoidable Increase in Current Deficit," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 3, pages 34-43.
  11. repec:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9440-5 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2010. "Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 21-43, February.
  13. Luiz de Mello & Pier Carlo Padoan & Linda Rousová, 2012. "Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 489-516, 08.
  14. Aßmann, Christian, 2007. "Determinants and Costs of Current Account Reversals under Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation," Economics Working Papers 2007,17, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

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