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Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals

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  • Alberto Bagnai

    ()

  • Stefano Manzocchi

    ()

Abstract

This paper studies episodes of current-account reversal in developing countries (DCs) in the period 1965–1994. First, a number of persistent shifts (“reversals”) in the current-account balance dynamics are identified by structural break and segmented trend tests; then, the relationship between these reversals and a set of fundamentals suggested by the intertemporal approach to the current account is investigated in a panel-data set-up. We find that fundamentals play a different role in episodes of persistent deterioration or improvement of the current-account balance in DCs. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1008365318228
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 143-163

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:10:y:1999:i:2:p:143-163
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Keywords: current account dynamics; developing countries; unit roots; structural breaks; panel data;

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  1. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  2. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
  3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
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  8. Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. & Razin, A., 1997. "Origins of Sharp Reductions in Current Account deficits: An Empirical Analysis," Papers 25-97, Tel Aviv.
  9. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  11. Gundlach, Erich & Sinn, Stefan, 1991. "Unit root tests of the current account balance: implications for international capital mobility," Kiel Working Papers 495, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  12. Julio A. Santaella, 1996. "Stylized Facts before IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 502-544, September.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  15. Manzocchi, Stefano & Martin, Philippe, 1996. "Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:

  1. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2010. "Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 21-43, February.
  2. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy (Neuberger), 2002. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
  4. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
  5. Alberto Bagnai, 2013. "Unhappy families are all alike: Minskyan cycles, Kaldorian growth, and the Eurozone peripheral crises," a/ Working Papers Series 1301, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  6. Sergio V. Barone & Ricardo Descalzi & Alberto M. Díaz Cafferata, 2012. "Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(1), pages 123–141, January.
  7. Luiz de Mello & Pier Carlo Padoan & Linda Rousová, 2010. "Are Global Imbalances Sustainable?: Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 813, OECD Publishing.
  8. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 2029, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Fernando Perez de Gracia & Juncal Cuñado, 2001. "Intertemporal Current Account And Productivity Shocks: Evidence For Some European Countries," Working Papers 01-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  10. Algieri, Bernardina & Bracke, Thierry, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 0762, European Central Bank.
  11. Aßmann, Christian, 2007. "Determinants and Costs of Current Account Reversals under Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation," Economics Working Papers 2007,17, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  12. Ibrahim Erem Sahin & Mehmet Mucuk, 2014. "The Effect of Current Account Deficit on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0301828, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

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