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A Direct Test for Changing Trend

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  • Chu, Chia-Shang James
  • White, Halbert

Abstract

The authors consider tests for changing trend that do not require prior knowledge about the location of the changepoint. The limiting distribution is derived from the functional central limit theorem and the critical value from the hitting probability of a Brownian bridge. Applying a test sensitive to the alternative of trend stationarity with structural breaks, they find that for real gross national product, real per capita gross national product, and real wages before World War II the hypothesis of trend stationarity is rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, Chia-Shang James & White, Halbert, 1992. "A Direct Test for Changing Trend," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 289-299, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:3:p:289-99
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
    2. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    3. Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1999. "A note on tests for partial parameter instability in the trend stationary model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 285-291, December.
    4. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Marriott, John & Newbold, Paul, 2000. "The strength of evidence for unit autoregressive roots and structural breaks: A Bayesian perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Estimating deterministic trends with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 56-69, July.
    8. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2016. "Inference on a Structural Break in Trend with Fractionally Integrated Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 555-574, July.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    10. Deng, Ai & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "A non-local perspective on the power properties of the CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests for structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 212-240, January.
    11. Wu, Jilin, 2016. "A test for changing trends with monotonic power," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 15-19.
    12. Quintos, Carmela E., 1998. "Stability tests in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-315, February.
    13. Juhl, Ted & Xiao, Zhijie, 2005. "A nonparametric test for changing trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 179-199, August.
    14. Jamie Emerson & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Testing for Structural Change of a Time Trend Regression in Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 15, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    15. Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1998. "Tests for changes in models with a polynomial trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 75-91, May.
    16. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Zaman, Asad & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2010. "Tests for structural change, aggregation, and homogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1382-1391, November.
    17. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1996. "A trend-resistant test for structural change based on OLS residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 175-185, January.
    18. Ozgen Sayginsoy & Tim Vogelsang, 2004. "Powerful Tests of Structural Change That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation," Discussion Papers 04-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    19. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    20. Grant, Alan P., 2002. "Time-varying estimates of the natural rate of unemployment: a revisitation of Okun's law," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-113.
    21. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1998. "Sources of nonmonotonic power when testing for a shift in mean of a dynamic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 283-299, November.
    22. Alberto Bagnai & Stefano Manzocchi, 1999. "Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 143-163, May.

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