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Agricultural trade in North America: Trade creation, regionalism and regionalisation

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  • Dragan Miljkovic
  • Rodney Paul

Abstract

Trade creation in agricultural products is defined as a statistically significant positive break in the trend function of the growth in exports and imports between member countries. The present study attempts to determine the time of any break in the trend of real exports and imports between the Canada-USA Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) member countries for the years 1980:I through 1999:II, and document the scale of the phenomenon. The present study finds trade creation only occurs in USA agricultural exports to Canada because of CUSTA. The results confirm the theory that the regionalism of NAFTA did not lead to regionalisation or an increasing share of intraregional international trade. Copyright Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Dragan Miljkovic & Rodney Paul, 2003. "Agricultural trade in North America: Trade creation, regionalism and regionalisation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages 349-366, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:47:y:2003:i:3:p:349-366
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wonnacott, Ronald J, 1996. "Free-Trade Agreements: For Better or Worse?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 62-66, May.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    4. Levy, Philip I, 1997. "A Political-Economic Analysis of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 506-519, September.
    5. Kala Krishna & Anne Krueger, 1995. "Implementing Free Trade Areas: Rules of Origin and Hidden Protection," NBER Working Papers 4983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
    8. Findlay, Christopher C., 2002. "Walking and chewing gum at the same time: Australia’s free trade area strategy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miljkovic, Dragan & Jin, Hyun J. & Paul, Rodney, 2008. "The role of productivity growth and farmers' income protection policies in the decline of relative farm prices in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 873-885.
    2. Malhotra Nisha & Rus Horatiu & Kassam Shinan, 2008. "Antidumping Duties in the Agriculture Sector: Trade Restricting or Trade Deflecting?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Susanto, Dwi & Rosson, C. Parr, III & Adcock, Flynn J., 2006. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the North American Free Trade Agreement: The Case of Agricultural Sector," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21357, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Dragan Miljkovic, 2009. "US and Canadian livestock prices: market integration and trade dependence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 183-193.

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