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Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français

  • Hervé Le Bihan

[eng] Break Tests : An Application to French Trend GDP by Hervé Le Bihan . This paper presents and applies to GDP recently developed tests for structural change , which allow for the endogenous statistical determination of trend growth break dates and numbers of break-points . These tests serve to investigate the existence of breaks in French trend GDP from 1963 to 2001 using both a segmented trend approach and a difference-stationary approach . Only one significant break (the 1974 slowdown ) is found . Consequently , trend growth is evaluated at 5.1 % prior to 1974 and 2.1 % after 1974 . [fre] Le présent article décrit des procédures de test de changements structurels développées récemment et propose une application de ces tests au Produit Intérieur Brut . En particulier , dans ces tests , les dates et le nombre de ruptures dans le taux de croissance du PIB tendanciel ne sont pas supposés connus a priori et sont déterminés de façon endogène par une procédure statistique . Les résultats des tests menés sur le PIB français sur la période 1963-2001 conduisent à ne retenir comme significative sur la période qu ’ une seule rupture , celle de 1974 , contemporaine du premier choc pétrolier . L ’ évaluation de la croissance tendancielle associée à cet exercice est de 5,1 % avant 1974 et de 2,1 % après 1974 .

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.2004.7349
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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 163 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 133-154

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_163_2_7349
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.7349
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  1. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  4. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
  6. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  7. Kim, In-Moo, 1997. "Detecting the number of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 145-148, December.
  8. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
  9. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  10. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews & Inpyo Lee & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Changepoint Tests for Normal Linear Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1016, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
  13. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  14. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
  15. Nicolas Sobczak & Guillaume Rabault & Catherine Doz, 1995. "Décomposition tendance-cycle : estimations par des méthodes statistiques univariées," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 120(4), pages 73-93.
  16. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  17. Sandrine Duchêne & Gérard Forgeot & Alain Jacquot, 1997. "Les évolutions récentes de la productivité du travail," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 301(1), pages 169-192.
  18. Baghli, M. & Bouthevilain, C. & De Bandt, O. & Fraisse, H. & Le Bihan, H. & Rousseaux, P., 2002. "PIB potentiel et écart de PIB : quelques évaluations pour la France," Working papers 89, Banque de France.
  19. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  20. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  22. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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