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Tests de rupture : une application au PIB tendanciel français

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  • Hervé Le Bihan

Abstract

This paper presents and applies to GDP recently developed tests for structural change, which allow for the endogenous statistical determination of trend growth break dates and numbers of break-points. These tests serve to investigate the existence of breaks in French trend GDP from 1963 to 2001 using both a segmented trend approach and a difference-stationary approach. Only one significant break (the 1974 slowdown) is found. Consequently, trend growth is evaluated at 5.1% prior to 1974 and 2.1% after 1974.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de rupture : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_163_0133
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61qna0rp is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2010. "Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 5-33.
    4. Clément Bosquet & Michel Fouquin, 2008. "Productivité du travail : la fin du processus de convergence ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 125-142.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069, HAL.
    6. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
    7. Potier, L. & Saint-Guilhem, A., 2006. "Adjustment scenarios for the US current account balance:an assessment based on different NiGEM calibrations," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 06, pages 19-47, Winter.
    8. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
    9. Charbel Macdissi & Jean-François Verne, 2009. "Un essai d'estimation de la production potentielle au Liban," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 143-159.
    10. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.

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