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Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret


    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman


    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries –Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study whether this set of countries is characterized by business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks, a strong similarity in the adjustment process and the convergence of policy responses. We focus especially our attention on two points. First, we try to determine to what extent international disturbances influence the domestic business cycles through trade and/or financial channels. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries' responses to shocks. All these features are the main issues in the literature relative to regional integration and OCA process.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00269122.

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Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Working paper GATE 2008-09. 2008
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00269122
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  1. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A. V. & Timmermann, Allan G, 2010. "Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "The costs of intermediate targeting," Working Papers 254, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Pär Österholm, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/176, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Camarero, Mariam & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Tamarit, Cecilio R., 2004. "Monetary union and productivity differences in mercosur countries," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 542, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  5. Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  7. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2006. "External Shocks, U.S. Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2006. "Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  9. Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6703, Inter-American Development Bank.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
  12. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  13. Corbo, Vittorio, 2001. "Is it time for a common currency for the Americas?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 241-248, April.
  14. Barry Eichengreen & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas," NBER Working Papers 9666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hallwood, Paul & Marsh, Ian W. & Scheibe, Jorg, 2006. "An assessment of the case for monetary union or official dollarization in five Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, March.
  16. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. Larrain Felipe & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
  18. Rose, Andrew K, 2006. "A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed," CEPR Discussion Papers 5854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  20. Salvatore, Dominick, 2001. "Which countries in the Americas should dollarize?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 347-355, April.
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