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Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries

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  • Diamandis, Panayiotis F.
  • Drakos, Anastassios A.

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between stock prices and exchange rates as well as the channels through which exogenous shocks influence these markets. We use monthly data for the period January 1980 to February 2009 for four Latin America, namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We conduct our analysis by means of cointegration analysis and multivariate Granger causality tests. The main finding of our analysis suggests that stock and foreign exchange markets in these economies are positively related and that the U.S. stock market acts as a channel for these links. Moreover, it is shown that these links are independent of foreign exchange restrictions. Finally, stability tests proposed by Hansen and Johansen (1993) are applied and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration space is sample independent while the estimated coefficients exhibit instability in recursive estimations. Instability in these long-run relationships is evident during the Mexican currency crisis of 1994-1995, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the 2007-2009 credit and financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2011. "Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 381-394, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:381-394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    2. Bashir, Usman & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney F., 2016. "Do foreign exchange and equity markets co-move in Latin American region? Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 889-897.
    3. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    4. Iglesias, Emma M., 2015. "Value at Risk of the main stock market indexes in the European Union (2000–2012)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13.
    5. Semei Coronado & Omar Rojas, 2016. "A study of co-movements between oil price, stock index and exchange rate under a cross-bicorrelation perspective: the case of Mexico," Papers 1602.03271, arXiv.org.
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    7. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-96.
    8. Guangxi Cao, 2012. "Time-Varying Effects of Changes in the Interest Rate and the RMB Exchange Rate on the Stock Market of China: Evidence from the Long-Memory TVP-VAR Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 230-248, July.
    9. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elena Pelinescu & Delia-Elena Diacona?u, 2015. "The Volatility of Romanian Exchange Rate: A GARCH Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 92-99, November.
    11. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ihnatov, Iulian & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "Analyzing time–frequency relationship between interest rate, stock price and exchange rate through continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 227-238.
    12. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
    13. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2016. "Stock markets and effective exchange rates in European countries: threshold cointegration findings," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-274, August.
    14. Mustapha, Ishaq Muhammad & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Dynamics of islamic stock market returns and exchange rate movements in the ASEAN Countries in a regime-switching environment: Implications for the islamic investors and risk hedgers," MPRA Paper 82218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gideon Boako & Maurice Omane-Adjepong & Joseph Magnus Frimpong, 2016. "Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Nexus in Ghana: A Bayesian Quantile Regression Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 149-179, March.
    16. Guangxi Cao, 2012. "Time-Varying Effects of Changes in the Interest Rate and the RMB Exchange Rate on the Stock Market of China: Evidence from the Long-Memory TVP-VAR Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 230-248, July.
    17. Ho, Liang-Chun & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2015. "The nonlinear relationships between stock indexes and exchange rates," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 20-27.
    18. Alma Hales, 2015. "Liquidity and price discovery in Latin America: evidence from American depositary receipts," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 661-678, October.

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