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A Century of Global Equity Market Correlations

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  • Dennis P. Quinn
  • Hans-Joachim Voth

Abstract

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.
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  • Dennis P. Quinn & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "A Century of Global Equity Market Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 535-540, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:2:p:535-40
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.2.535
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    Cited by:

    1. Vermeulen, Robert, 2013. "International diversification during the financial crisis: A blessing for equity investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 104-123.
    2. Narayan, S. & Sriananthakumar, S. & Islam, S.Z., 2014. "Stock market integration of emerging Asian economies: Patterns and causes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-31.
    3. Billio, M. & Donadelli, M. & Paradiso, A. & Riedel, M., 2017. "Which market integration measure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 150-174.
    4. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2014. "The home bias is here to stay," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 29-40.
    5. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2014. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 490-542.
    6. repec:eee:mulfin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hu, Te-Chung & Hu, Hui-Ting, 2015. "Dynamic Asian stock market convergence: Evidence from dynamic cointegration analysis among China and ASEAN-5," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 84-98.
    8. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:150-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chakraborty, Indraneel & Hai, Rong & Holter, Hans A. & Stepanchuk, Serhiy, 2017. "The real effects of financial (dis)integration: A multi-country equilibrium analysis of Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 28-45.
    10. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary policy effectiveness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 200-212.
    11. Geert Bekaert & Arnaud Mehl, 2017. "On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 23124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:eee:revfin:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:41-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Kyungkeun Kim & Dongwon Lee, 2017. "Equity Market Globalization and Portfolio Rebalancing," Working Papers 2017-17, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    15. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2005. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590775, HAL.
    16. Rangvid, Jesper & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Schmeling, Maik, 2016. "Capital market integration and consumption risk sharing over the long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 27-43.
    17. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:379-390 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Jorda, Oscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M. & Ward, Felix, 2018. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," Working Paper Series 2018-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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