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A century of global equity market correlations

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  • Dennis Quinn
  • Joachim Voth

Abstract

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Quinn & Joachim Voth, 2006. "A century of global equity market correlations," Economics Working Papers 1119, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vermeulen, Robert, 2013. "International diversification during the financial crisis: A blessing for equity investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 104-123.
    2. Narayan, S. & Sriananthakumar, S. & Islam, S.Z., 2014. "Stock market integration of emerging Asian economies: Patterns and causes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-31.
    3. repec:eee:mulfin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:150-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Geert Bekaert & Arnaud Mehl, 2017. "On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 23124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:eee:revfin:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:41-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Billio, M. & Donadelli, M. & Paradiso, A. & Riedel, M., 2017. "Which market integration measure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 150-174.
    8. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Kyungkeun Kim & Dongwon Lee, 2017. "Equity Market Globalization and Portfolio Rebalancing," Working Papers 2017-17, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    10. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:379-390 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2014. "The home bias is here to stay," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 29-40.
    13. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2014. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 490-542.
    14. Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hu, Te-Chung & Hu, Hui-Ting, 2015. "Dynamic Asian stock market convergence: Evidence from dynamic cointegration analysis among China and ASEAN-5," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 84-98.
    15. Chakraborty, Indraneel & Hai, Rong & Holter, Hans A. & Stepanchuk, Serhiy, 2017. "The real effects of financial (dis)integration: A multi-country equilibrium analysis of Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 28-45.
    16. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary policy effectiveness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 200-212.
    17. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2014. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 490-542.
    18. Rangvid, Jesper & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Schmeling, Maik, 2016. "Capital market integration and consumption risk sharing over the long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 27-43.
    19. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Jorda, Oscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M. & Ward, Felix, 2018. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," Working Paper Series 2018-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diversification; capital flows; capital account openness; liberalization;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism

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