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Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration

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  • GEERT BEKAERT
  • CAMPBELL R. HARVEY
  • CHRISTIAN LUNDBLAD
  • STEPHAN SIEGEL

Abstract

We propose an exogenous measure of a country's growth opportunities by interacting the country's local industry mix with global price to earnings (PE) ratios. We find that these exogenous growth opportunities predict future changes in real GDP and investment in a large panel of countries. This relation is strongest in countries that have liberalized their capital accounts, equity markets, and banking systems. We also find that financial development, external finance dependence, and investor protection measures are much less important in aligning growth opportunities with growth than is capital market openness. Finally, we formulate new tests of market integration and segmentation by linking local and global PE ratios to relative economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2007. "Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1081-1137, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:62:y:2007:i:3:p:1081-1137
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01231.x
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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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