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Stock market integration and macroeconomic fundamentals: an empirical analysis, 1980-95

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  • David Dickinson

Abstract

As stock markets world-wide have become more open there has been increasing interest in international linkages. The recent literature has used modern time series techniques (cointegration, causality) to investigate this issue and generally has found there to be greater links between stock markets in recent years with the US causing other market movements. In a different vein, there has been work to identify the underlying economic variables which cause stock index movements. This research has uncovered a number of key macroeconomic variables (e.g. output, inflation, interest rates) as significant determinants of stock market movements. This paper approaches the issue of stock index behaviour by combining the insights of both these approaches. In particular it considers the extent to which correlations between international stock markets are a result of globalization of financial markets or whether they reflect the increasingly integrated nature of the world real economy, as represented by comovements between key macroeconomic variables. This study will concentrate on the US (New York) and three European Stock markets (London, Paris and Frankfurt).

Suggested Citation

  • David Dickinson, 2000. "Stock market integration and macroeconomic fundamentals: an empirical analysis, 1980-95," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 261-276.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:3:p:261-276
    DOI: 10.1080/096031000331671
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    Cited by:

    1. Quinn, Dennis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2008. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," CEPR Discussion Papers 7013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Gazi Mainul Hassan & Hisham M. Al refai, 2012. "Can macroeconomic factors explain equity returns in the long run? The case of Jordan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1029-1041, July.
    3. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-193, July.
    4. Aristeidis G. Samitas & Dimitris F. Kenourgios, 2007. "Macroeconomic factors' influence on 'new' European countries' stock returns: the case of four transition economies," International Journal of Financial Services Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 34-49.
    5. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2011. "Financial integration and portfolio investments to emerging Balkan equity markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 40-54, February.
    6. Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2011. "International Stock Markets: A Co-integration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 113-130.
    7. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 36-58.
    8. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2005. "Portfolio diversification benefits within Europe: Implications for a US investor," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 455-476.
    9. Bley, Jorg, 2009. "European stock market integration: Fact or fiction?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-776, December.
    10. Tomoe Moore, 2007. "Has entry to the European Union altered the dynamic links of stock returns for the emerging markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1431-1446.
    11. Claus, Edda & Lucey, Brian M., 2012. "Equity market integration in the Asia Pacific region: Evidence from discount factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 137-163.
    12. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2009. "Spillover effects from London and Frankfurt to Central and Eastern European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1509-1521.
    13. Dennis P. Quinn & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "A Century of Global Equity Market Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 535-540, May.
    14. Blasco, Natividad & Corredor, Pilar & Del Rio, Cristina & Santamaria, Rafael, 2005. "Bad news and Dow Jones make the Spanish stocks go round," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 253-275, May.
    15. Numan Ülkü, 2011. "Modeling Comovement among Emerging Stock Markets: The Case of Budapest and Istanbul," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 277-304, July.
    16. Yang, Ann Shawing & Pangastuti, Airin, 2016. "Stock market efficiency and liquidity: The Indonesia Stock Exchange merger," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-40.
    17. Dennis Quinn & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2010. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 7-39 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-60.
    19. Matei, Florin, 2014. "An empirical examination of stock market integration in EMU," MPRA Paper 60717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Heng Chen & Russell Smyth & Wing-Keung Wong, 2008. "Is being a super-power more important than being your close neighbour? A study of what moves the Australian stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 733-747.
    21. Hock-Ann Lee & Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2009. "Is There Any International Diversification Benefits in ASEAN Stock Markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 392-406.

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