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International nonlinear causality between stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hélène Raymond-Feingold

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Michel Beine

Abstract

In this paper, we test for linear and nonlinear Granger causality between the French, German, Japanese, UK and US daily stock index returns from 1973 to 2003. We find a strong contemporaneous linear dependence between European countries and a directional linear dependence from the US towards the other markets. Besides, linear causality increases after 1987, a finding consistent with the expected effects of financial liberalization of the 1980s and the 1990s. Above all, we document the presence of bidirectional nonlinear causality between daily returns. To check for spurious nonlinear causality, we filter out heteroskedasticity using a FIGARCH model. The dramatic decrease in the number of significant nonlinear causality lags confirms that heteroskedasticity played a major part in the previous findings. We then check if a few structural breaks can explain the remaining nonlinear causality. We find that a large number of nonlinear relationships vanish when we control for structural breaks, whereas linear causality remains.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Hélène Raymond-Feingold & Michel Beine, 2008. "International nonlinear causality between stock markets," Post-Print halshs-00305387, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00305387
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470802042112
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    Cited by:

    1. Menezes, Rui & Dionísio, Andreia & Hassani, Hossein, 2012. "On the globalization of stock markets: An application of Vector Error Correction Model, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis to the G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 369-384.
    2. Sunil S. Poshakwale & Anandadeep Mandal, 2017. "Sources of time varying return comovements during different economic regimes: evidence from the emerging Indian equity market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 859-892, May.
    3. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
    4. Songtao Wu & Jianmin He & Chao Wang, 2017. "Effects of Common Factors on Dynamics of Stocks Traded by Investors with Limited Information Capacity," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-15, September.
    5. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    6. Virginie Coudert & Hélène Raymond-Feingold, 2011. "Gold and financial assets: Are there any safe havens in bear markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1613-1622.
    7. Rui Menezes & Andreia Dioniso, 2011. "Globalization and long-run co-movements in the stock market for the G7: an application of VECM under structural breaks," Papers 1101.4093, arXiv.org.
    8. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2012. "Pruning a minimum spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2678-2711.
    9. Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet, 2020. "Co-movements and spillovers of oil and renewable firms under extreme conditions: New evidence from negative WTI prices during COVID-19," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. amri amamou, souhir & hellara, slaheddine, 2021. "The dynamic relationship between the sovereign CDS market and the Eurozone sovereign bond market (classified by maturity): Contagion or Spillovers?," MPRA Paper 109038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Amalendu Bhunia & Devrim Yaman, 2017. "Is There a Causal Relationship Between Financial Markets in Asia and the US?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, Jan-June.
    12. Alphonse Singbo & Dislène Sossou, 2024. "Asymmetric spot‐futures prices adjustments in Quebec grain markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 72(3), pages 347-363, September.
    13. Leonidas Sandoval Junior, 2011. "Pruning a Minimum Spanning Tree," Papers 1109.0642, arXiv.org.
    14. Chiu-Lan Chang & Paul L. Hsueh, 2013. "An Investigation of the Flight-to-Quality Effect: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 53-69, September.
    15. Aymen Belgacem & Amine Lahiani, 2012. "More on the impact of US macroeconomic announcements: Evidence from French and German stock markets' volatility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1509-1526.

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