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Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?

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  • Volosovych, Vadym

Abstract

Using long time series for sovereign bond markets of fifteen industrialized economies from 1875 to 2009, I find that financial market integration by the end of the 20th century was higher than in earlier periods and exhibited a J-shaped trend with a trough in the 1920s. The main reason for the higher financial integration seen today is the recent extensive globalization. Around the turn of the 20th century, countries frequently drifted apart. Conversely, in recent years, the bond markets of most countries have moved together. Both policy variables and the global market environment play a role in explaining the time variation in integration, while “unexplained” changes in the overall level of country risk are also empirically important. My methodology, based on principal components analysis, is immune to outliers and accounts for global and country-specific shocks and, hence, can capture trends in financial integration more accurately than standard techniques such as simple correlations.

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  • Volosovych, Vadym, 2011. "Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1535-1561.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:7:p:1535-1561
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.07.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Boryana Bogdanova, 2014. "Measuring the degree of integration within a group of stock markets," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 26-46.
    2. Monica Billio & Michael Donadelli & Antonio Paradiso & Max Riedel, 2015. "Measuring Financial Integration: Lessons from the Correlation," Working Papers 2015:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Geert Bekaert & Arnaud Mehl, 2017. "On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 23124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Billio, M. & Donadelli, M. & Paradiso, A. & Riedel, M., 2017. "Which market integration measure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 150-174.
    5. Riki Amir Kusnadi & Romora Edward Sitorus, 2014. "The dynamics of regional economic integration in ASEAN + 3 countries," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(9), pages 439-454, September.
    6. Khalid Kisswani & Salah Nusair, 2014. "Nonlinear convergence in Asian interest and inflation rates: evidence from Asian countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 155-186, August.
    7. Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2015. "Trade, Factor Mobility and the Extent of Economic Integration: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 5481, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. repec:eee:reveco:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:25-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-561 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2015. "Trade, Factor Mobility and the Extent of Economic Integration: Theory and Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-096/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Rughoo, Aarti & You, Kefei, 2016. "Asian financial integration: Global or regional? Evidence from money and bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 419-434.
    12. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Is there heterogeneity in financial integration dynamics? Evidence from country and industry emerging market equity indexes," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 184-218.
    13. Nitsch, Volker & Berger, Helge, 2015. "Measuring economic and institutional integration," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 225, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets integration; Principal components; Sovereign bonds;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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