IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Large global volatility shocks, equity markets and globalisation: 1885-2011

I estimate the transmission of large global volatility shocks in international equity markets from the earlier (pre-1914) to the modern era of globalisation. To that end, I identify 43 such shocks over the period 1885-2011, defined as significant increases in unanticipated volatility in US equity markets, which I relate to well-known historical events. My estimates suggest that the response of global equity markets to these shocks in a panel of 16 countries is both statistically significant and large economically. On average, global equity market valuations correct by about 20% in the month when a shock occurs. There is substantial heterogeneity in responses both across countries and time, however, which can be partly explained by differences in global trade integration. I find no evidence that other potential theoretical determinants, such as output composition, country fundamentals or global policy responses matter, by contrast. These results shed light on a neglected aspect of globalisation, which creates opportunities but also heightens the exposure of economies to acute surges in global uncertainty and risk aversion. JEL Classification: F30, F31, N20

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1548.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1548.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131548
Contact details of provider: Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, May.
  3. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default and Credit," NBER Working Papers 9285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2014. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7287gghh is not listed on IDEAS
  6. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," NBER Working Papers 12484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
  8. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0739, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  9. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
  11. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-64, March.
  12. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2008. "International stock return comovements," Working Paper Series 0931, European Central Bank.
  13. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Vincenzo Quadrini & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion," 2010 Meeting Papers 841, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2010. "Home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  16. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Antras, Pol, 2007. "Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective," Scholarly Articles 3264875, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. John Y. Campbell, 1998. "Asset Prices, Consumption, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2012. "Rare Macroeconomic Disasters," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 83-109, 07.
  19. Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  20. Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2006. "The Geography of Trade in Goods and Asset Holdings," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  21. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  22. Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 8438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2001. "Financial market integration in Europe: on the effects of EMU on stock markets," Working Paper Series 0048, European Central Bank.
  24. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  25. Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1988. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  27. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2009. "The geography of asset trade and the euro: Insiders and outsiders," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-113, June.
  29. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Kose, Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2004. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. S M Ali Abbas & Nazim Belhocine & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Mark Horton, 2011. "Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(4), pages 717-742, November.
  32. Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 9970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
  34. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
  35. Adrian, Tobias & Franzoni, Francesco, 2009. "Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-556, September.
  36. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1997. " International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time-Varying Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1881-1912, December.
  37. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  38. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2009. "Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 368-387, June.
  39. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  40. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "International Investment Patterns," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp024, IIIS.
  41. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
  42. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Scheicher, Martin, 2009. "What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?," Working Paper Series 1037, European Central Bank.
  44. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
  45. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, June.
  46. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
  47. Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "The Drivers of Financial Globalization," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp238, IIIS.
  48. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
  49. George Bittlingmayer, 1998. "Output, Stock Volatility, and Political Uncertainty in a Natural Experiment: Germany, 1880-1940," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2243-2257, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.