IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Time-varying integration, interdependence and contagion

  • Baele, Lieven
  • Inghelbrecht, Koen

Bekaert et al. (2005) define contagion as "correlation over and above what one would expect from economic fundamentals". Based on a two-factor asset pricing specification to model fundamentally-driven linkages between markets, they define contagion as correlation among the model residuals, and develop a corresponding test procedure. In this paper, we investigate to what extent conclusions from this contagion test depend upon the specification of the time-varying factor exposures. We develop a two-factor model with global and regional market shocks as factors. We make the global and regional market exposures conditional upon both a latent regime variable and three structural instruments, and find that, for a set of 14 European countries, this model outperforms more restricted versions. The structurally-driven increase in global (regional) market exposures and correlations suggest that market integration has increased substantially over the last three decades. Using our optimal model, we do not find evidence that further integration has come at the cost of contagion. We do find evidence for contagion, however, when more restricted versions of the factor specifications are used. We conclude that the specification of the global and regional market exposures is an important issue in any test for contagion.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V9S-4Y34PSH-4/2/3c99ba157707a3d767b8c7d63c627539
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 791-818

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:791-818
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
  2. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," NBER Working Papers 9555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
  5. L. Baele, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/189, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
  7. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2006. "International Stock Return Comovements," CEPR Discussion Papers 5955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2009. "Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 368-387, June.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  11. Alessandro Rebucci & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2003. "Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," IMF Working Papers 03/171, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  14. Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "A Test for Volatility Spillovers," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  15. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2001. "Financial market integration in Europe: on the effects of EMU on stock markets," Working Paper Series 0048, European Central Bank.
  16. Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December.
  17. Jon Wongswan, 2003. "Contagion: an empirical test," International Finance Discussion Papers 775, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Chen, Nai-fu & Zhang, Feng, 1997. "Correlations, trades and stock returns of the Pacific-Basin markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 559-577, December.
  19. Baele, Lieven & Pungulescu, Crina & Ter Horst, Jenke, 2007. "Model uncertainty, financial market integration and the home bias puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 606-630, June.
  20. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
  21. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
  22. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  23. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  24. Roll, Richard, 1992. " Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March.
  25. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
  26. De Santis, Roberto A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2006. "Financial integration, international portfolio choice and the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 0626, European Central Bank.
  27. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  28. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility-Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948.
  29. Karolyi, G Andrew, 2003. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-99, Summer.
  30. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
  31. Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2004. "Industry Risk and Market Integration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 207-221, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:791-818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.