IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk

  • Lieven Baele

    (Tilburg University, CentER, Netspar)

  • Koen Inghelbrecht

    (Ghent University)

This paper analyzes the dynamics and determinants of the relative benefits of geographical and industry diversification over the last 30 years. First, we develop a new structural regime-switching volatility spillover model to decompose total risk into a systematic and a country (industry) specific component. Contrary to most other studies, we explicitly allow market betas and asset-specific risks to vary with both structural and temporary changes in the economic and financial environment. In a second step, we investigate the relative benefits of geographical and industry diversification by comparing average asset- specific volatilities and model-implied correlations across countries and industries. We find a large positive (negative) effect of the structural factors on country betas (country-specific volatility), especially in Europe, while industry betas are mainly determined by temporary factors. Not taking into account the time variation in betas leads to biases in measures of industry and country-specific risk of up to 33 percent. After correcting for this bias, we find that under the influence of globalization and regionial integration, the traditional dominance geographical over industry diversification has been eroded, and that over the last years geographical and industry diversification roughly yield the same diversification benefits. Finally, our results indicate that the surge in industry risk at the end of the 1990s was partly (but not fully) related to the TMT bubble.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0511/0511005.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0511005.

as
in new window

Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0511005
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 64
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
  3. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Working Paper 2002-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
  5. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," NBER Working Papers 9555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. William Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm237, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2008.
  7. John M. Griffin & Rene M. Stulz, 1997. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 6243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-49, July.
  10. Roll, Richard, 1992. " Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March.
  11. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
  14. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
  15. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Working Paper Series 0058, European Central Bank.
  16. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  18. Campa, José Manuel & Fernandes, Nuno, 2004. "Sources of Gains from International Portfolio Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 4390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  20. Pietro Veronesi & Tano Santos, 2004. "Conditional Betas," 2004 Meeting Papers 24, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  22. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  23. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
  25. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  26. Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Discussion Paper 2003-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  27. Yongmiao Hong & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2006. "Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Statistical Tests and Economic Evaluation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1547-1581, 2007 23.
  28. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
  30. Luis Catão & Robin Brooks, 2000. "The New Economy and Global Stock Return," IMF Working Papers 00/216, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Fratzscher, M., 2001. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," Papers 48, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  32. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  33. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
  35. Cai, Jun, 1994. "A Markov Model of Switching-Regime ARCH," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 309-16, July.
  36. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  37. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  38. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  40. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2006. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Working Papers 06-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  41. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003. "Volatility-Spillover E ffects in European Bond Markets," Finance Working Papers 03-8, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0511005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.