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On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma

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  • Geert Bekaert
  • Arnaud Mehl

Abstract

We propose a simple measure of de facto financial market integration based on a factor model of monthly equity returns, which can be computed back to the first era of financial globalization for 17 countries. Global financial market integration follows a “swoosh” shape – i.e. high pre-1913, still higher post-1990, low in the interwar period – rather than the other shapes hypothesized in earlier literature. We find no evidence of financial globalization reversing since the Great Recession as claimed in other recent studies. De jure capital account openness and global growth uncertainty are the two main determinants of long-run global financial market integration. We use our measure to revisit the debate on the trilemma between financial openness, the exchange rate regime, and monetary policy autonomy, and on whether the trilemma has recently morphed into a dilemma due to global financial cycles. We find evidence consistent with the trilemma and inconsistent with the dilemma hypothesis, both throughout history and for the recent decades; non-US central banks still exert more control over domestic interest rates when exchange rates are flexible in economies open to global finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Geert Bekaert & Arnaud Mehl, 2017. "On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 23124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23124
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    7. Kim, Kyungkeun & Lee, Dongwon, 2020. "Equity market integration and portfolio rebalancing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. K.S.Reddy, 2019. "Pot the ball? Sovereign wealth funds’ outward FDI in times of global financial market turbulence: A yield institutions-based view," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 19(4), pages 129-139.
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    10. Aizenman, Joshua, 2019. "A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 444-454.
    11. Dongwon Lee, 2020. "Global financial integration and monetary policy spillovers," Working Papers 202026, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    12. Boyarchenko, Nina & Larsen, Lars C. & Whelan, Paul, 2020. "The Overnight Drift," CEPR Discussion Papers 14462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Peter J. Montiel & Peter Pedroni, 2019. "Trilemma-Dilemma: Constraint or Choice? Some Empirical Evidence from a Structurally Identified Heterogeneous Panel VAR," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, February.
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    15. Eichengreen, Barry & Esteves, Rui, 2019. "The Trials of the Trilemma: International Finance 1870-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 13465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    17. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi & Kwanho Shin, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Insulation in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 565-618, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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